最新数据显示,中国在2009年取代德国成为了全球第一出口大国,令其他贸易大国受创更深的全球经济危机对中国此番登顶起到了推波助澜的作用。
China took over the mantle of the world's top exporter from Germany in 2009, according to the latest figures, helped on its way by a global economic crisis that has taken a greater toll on other trading powers.
由总部设在日内瓦的世界贸易信息服务股份公司(Global Trade Information Services)提供的数据显示,去年前10个月中国共出口了价值9,570亿美元的货品,超过德国的9,170亿美元。贸易问题专家称,11、12月 两月的贸易情况不可能扭转中国的领先局面。
China exported $957 billion of goods in the first 10 months of 2009, compared with $917 billion for Germany, according to data compiled by Global Trade Information Services, a Geneva-based firm that collects and tabulates customs data. No November or December developments are likely to overturn the Chinese lead, trade experts say.
在过去10年里,中国在正常情况下每年出口增幅都会超过20%,它成为全球最大出口国早已在人们意料之中。
China had long been expected to become the world's largest exporter, with annual growth in exports regularly exceeding 20% in the past decade.
供职于中国商务部某智囊机构的梅新育说,中国在出口领域超越德国只是个时间问题。
'China's overtaking Germany on exports was only a matter of time,' said Mei Xinyu, who works for a think tank affiliated with China's Commerce Ministry.
达特茅斯学院(Dartmouth College)教授道格拉斯•厄尔文(Douglas Irwin)说,中国在各个领域的增长速度都比德国快得多,中国有13亿人口,而德国只有8,300万人。
Douglas Irwin, a professor at Dartmouth College, said 'China has been growing much more rapidly than Germany on all sorts of dimensions and has a population of 1.3 billion, while Germany has 83 million.'
本次金融危机帮助了中国成功上位,因为它受到的影响小于其他大型经济体。由于全球贸易受到了严重冲击,中国在去年前10个月中出口减少了 20.4%,而德国和日本的出口降幅分别达到了27.37%和31.09%。美国同期出口降幅为21.37%,美元走软提高了美国商品的竞争力,使得美国 出口没有出现更大缩水。
China's ascendancy has been boosted by the financial crisis, from which China has suffered less than other major economies. With trade in tatters around the world, Chinese exports fell 20.4% during the first ten months of 2009, compared with 27.37% for Germany and 31.09% for Japan. U.S. exports dropped 21.37%, with the weak dollar making U.S. goods cheaper and preventing a steeper fall.
中国出口业之所以表现出相对良好的弹性应归功于以下几个因素的综合影响。人民币汇率钉住疲软的美元,确保了中国出口商品的价格竞争力。相对于德 国来说,中国还生产许多低价商品,它们在经济衰退期受到的影响较小。花旗银行(Citibank)首席中国经济学家沈明高说,对低端及劳动密集型产品的需 求相对稳定。
A combination of factors account for China's relative resilience. The Chinese currency is tied to the sinking dollar, helping to keep China's exports competitive on price. By contrast with Germany, China also produces many low-cost goods that are relatively recession-proof. 'The demand for low-end and labor-intensive products is relatively stable,' said Shen Minggao, chief China economist at Citibank in Beijing.
广州皮具制品出口商金圣斯国际(Kingsons International)的首席执行长黄辉古说,许多中国出口到全球市场的商品都是生活必须品,受金融危机的影响不大。
'Most of the products China produces for the global market are life necessities,' less affected by the financial crisis, says Huang Huigu, CEO of Kingsons International, a Guangzhou-based exporter of leather bags.
要或强大,中国的出口中有六成来自那些外商控股企业。
To be sure, China's export prowess 'is not speaking to how important and powerful Chinese companies are on their own,' says Scott Kennedy, a China expert and political scientist at Indiana University. Sixty percent of the country's exports come from companies owned by foreign investors, he says.
过去10年见证了全球贸易领域的风云巨变。直到2002年,美国还一直是全球最大的出口国,2003年时德国坐上了头把交椅。当时,刚刚在两年 前、即2001年加入世界贸易组织的中国是全球第五大出口国,不及日本和法国。而追溯至1997年,中国仅排名第十,在它前面的有加拿大和几个欧洲国家。
The last decade has seen a sea change in global trade. Until as late as 2002, the U.S. was the world's leading exporter, before Germany claimed the top spot in 2003. At the time, China -- which joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 -- was fifth, behind Japan and France. In 1997, China had been tenth, also trailing Canada and a host of European countries.
对于德国而言,中国的超越可谓一把双刃剑。德国出口商协会(German Exporters Association)贸易专家纳格尔(Jens Nagel)说,中国是我们最大的竞争对手,也是我们最具活力的市场。
For Germany, the ascendance of China has been a double-edged sword. The country is 'our biggest competitor but also our most dynamic market,' says Jens Nagel, a trade expert with the German Exporters Association.
他说,德国很骄傲能连续六年成为全球第一大出口国,但是现在中国成了领跑者。
'We were proud to keep the ceremonial title of world export champion six years in a row, but now China has taken the lead,' Mr. Nagel adds.
纳格尔认为排名变化的原因包括欧元走强和金融危机的影响。德国出口商协会预计2010年德国出口将增长10%。纳格尔说,回到2008年是不可能的,但最困难的时候已经过去。
He cites the strong euro and the financial crisis among reasons behind the change. The association expects German exports to grow 10% in 2010. 'It won't take us back to 2008, but the worst is over,' says Mr. Nagel.