Sales of luxury goods, everything from apparel, to jewelry and leather goods, are likely to fall globally by 8% this year, to about $227 billion, according to a revised estimate.
根据一份修订后的预期，全球奢侈品的销售额2009年可能会下降8%，至2,270亿美元左右。
The forecast, to be released Monday morning by consultants Bain & Co., narrows the global decline that Bain had forecast six months ago. In April, it predicted a 10% world-wide sales drop for 2009, citing its expected first-half plunge of as much as 20% followed by stabilization in the second half.
咨询机构贝恩顾问公司(Bain & Co.)周一发表的这份预测，对全球奢侈品销售额降幅的预期低于6个月前。4月份时，贝恩预测今年的全球奢侈品销售额将下降10%，理由是它预计销售额上半年最多可能下降20%，下半年则会稳定下来。
Claudia D'Arpizio, a Bain retail consultant based in Milan, said, 'We are seeing less discounting and mark-downs, and more signs of increasing consumer confidence.'
贝恩驻米兰零售业咨询师达皮其奥(Claudia D’Arpizio)说，我们看到打折和降价的情况正在减少，越来越多的迹象显示消费者的信心在增强。
Bain produces one of the few market forecasts on luxury goods. Its latest revision raised its estimate for global sales, but slightly lowered its forecast for U.S. sales.
贝恩是对奢侈品市场提供预测的为数不多几家公司之一。它的最新预测提高了对全球销售额的预期，但略微下调了对美国的销售预期。
The U.S., which accounts for roughly a third of luxury-goods sales, remains the worst-hit market. Bain expects U.S. sales of high-end clothing, accessories, tableware, cosmetics and jewelry will drop by 16% this year.
美国约占全球奢侈品销售额的三分之一，目前仍是受打击最为严重的市场。贝恩预计，美国高档服装、饰品、餐具、化妆品和首饰的销售额今年将下降16%。
That compares with expected sales declines of 10% in Japan, and 8% in Europe. Together, the three 'mature' consumer markets--the U.S., Japan and Europe--make up more than 80% of world-wide luxury good sales.
相比之下，预计日本的销售额将下降10%，欧洲下降8%。美国、日本和欧洲这三大“成熟”的消费市场总计占到了全球奢侈品销售额的80%以上。
But a projected 10% rise in sales of luxury items overall in Asia may help to partially offset some of the declines, Bain said. The consultancy expects a 12% increase in 2009 luxury-goods sales in mainland China.
但贝恩说，亚洲总的奢侈品销售额预计将增长10%，这或许在一定程度上有助于抵消发达国家奢侈品销售额下降造成的不利影响。贝恩预计，2009年中国大陆奢侈品的销售额将增长12%。
Bain, which releases a U.S. retail holiday forecast later this month, said Monday morning that it expects to see a 1% decline in sales of luxury goods globally in the fourth quarter followed by 1% growth overall next year. The luxury goods industry likely won't fully recover from the downturn until 2011 or 2012, it predicts.
贝恩周一早间说，预计第四季度全球奢侈品销售额将下降1%，而明年将增长1%。贝恩本月晚些时候将发布一份有关美国假日期间零售情况的预测报告。贝恩预计，奢侈品行业可能要到2011年或2012年才会完全摆脱低迷。
Many of America's key high-end merchants have continued to suffer in recent months, as shoppers restrict themselves to practical purchases and forgo designer clothing and accessories that may go out of fashion quickly.
近几个月来，美国的许多主要高端商店依然生意清淡，消费者纷纷限制自己的实际购买行为，不再购买可能很快过时的时装及饰品。
For the holiday season, an expected decline in luxury good sales is an improvement over last year's miserable results. U.S. sales of luxury merchandise are set to fall by 2% in November and December, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group whose broader holiday forecast for retail called for 1% growth overall. In the 2008 holiday period, sales of high-end goods fell by a whopping 14%, it estimated.
预计在即将到来的假日购物季节，奢侈品销售的降幅会小于去年同期。国际购物中心协会 (International Council of Shopping Centers)预计，美国11月和12月的奢侈品销售额将下降2%。这个行业组织预计假日期间的零售额将增长1%。该协会估计，在2008年假日期间， 高端商品的销售额大幅下降了14%。