麦期货价格周四大涨，达到两年来最高，原因是俄罗斯方面说将因为严重干旱而禁止谷物出口，让市场对全球谷物供应和食品价格可能受到的影响担忧骤然加剧。
芝 加哥商品交易所(Chicago Board of Trade)，9月份到期的小麦期货上涨幅度达到交易所设置的每日限度60美分，收于每蒲式耳7.85 3/4美元，较前一交易日收盘上涨8.3%，是2008年8月29日以来的最高水平。自6月份触及九个月低点以来，由于市场预计美国小麦的需求将会增加， 美国小麦期货价格已经上涨接近85%。
俄罗斯是小麦出产和供应大国，在出口禁令颁布以前，市场对俄罗斯小麦收成的预期已经有数个星期不断下降。市场参与者曾在近几天猜测俄罗斯有可能颁布出口禁令，但这种可能性的效应显然并没有完全反映在市场价格当中。
多数市场参与者并不认为引发2008年食品骚乱的那些问题会再次出现，但价格的上涨和未来谷物供应的不确定性，已经迫使买卖双方重新调整计划。
瑞 士两大食品零售商Migros-Genossenschafts-Bund和Coop Schweiz周四说，它们正在考虑上调含小麦的食品价格。这两家公司同时也拥有食品加工设施。在它们发表这种声明之前，英国的Premier Foods PLC在周三也曾有类似警告，它说，销售其标志性的“Hovis”面包的分公司下半年利润将会下降。
俄罗斯总理普京(Vladimir Putin)一位发言人说，出口禁令影响到小麦、玉米、大麦、黑麦和面粉，按计划于8月15日生效，一直持续到年底。手持旧合约的交易员只能在8月15日前交割。
普京在一次政府工作会议上说，由于这场不正常的高温和干旱，我认为临时禁止从俄罗斯出口谷物和其他产自谷物的农产品是可取的。
芝加哥经纪公司North America Risk Management Services分析师吉德尔(Jerry Gidel)说，禁令意义重大，因为俄罗斯已经成为世界市场的主要出口国家之一。在5月份结束的农事年里，俄罗斯是世界最大进口国埃及的主要供应国。
吉德尔说，关键的问题在于，人们当初以为俄罗斯会有某种出口，但现在，一定时间内可能就不会有任何东西出口了。
埃及谷物商会会长Ali Sharaf El Din周四说，如果俄罗斯的小麦供应中断，埃及还有六个月的小麦供应。
但埃及贸易部一位消息人士说，由于埃及严重依赖俄罗斯的小麦，它仍然很容易受到俄罗斯国内问题的影响。
上述人士说，由于俄罗斯一直是我们最大的供应国之一，俄罗斯的旱灾可能会使埃及和其他进口俄罗斯小麦的国家容易受到冲击，不过俄罗斯并不是我们唯一的小麦来源，局面并非不可扭转。
贸易高管说，由于小麦供应不足等问题，另外一个小麦主要出口国乌克兰也取消了数单小麦出口合同。这则消息加剧了对小麦供应紧张的担忧，因为2008年初时，乌克兰的出口限制曾帮助推动小麦价格飙升到创纪录的水平。
乌克兰数周来一直遭受着酷暑和干旱，短期内也没有明显的缓解迹象。可能的持续干旱引发人们的担心今年秋季麦农种植下一季小麦时，形势仍不会乐观。
在俄罗斯出口禁令的消息披露后，农业企业巨头嘉吉公司(Cargill Inc.)表达了对贸易壁垒的担忧。该公司的业务包括粮食收购、加工和运输。
这家位于明尼阿波利斯的公司在电子邮件中发表声明说，这类贸易壁垒增大了小麦供应从供应过剩地区向供应不足地区转移的难度，阻止了价格信号传达到麦农，进而进一步使小麦市场失真。
对 小麦供应的担忧也开始刺激其他粮食价格上涨。周四早盘，芝加哥商品交易所9月份交割的玉米期货触及了七个月来的高点，涨6.2%，至每蒲式耳4.25美 元。玉米和小麦息息相关，因为它们都被用于动物饲料。当小麦价格涨至交易所设定的限度时，想买进粮食期货的交易员可能会转向芝加哥商品交易所的玉米和大 豆。
联合国粮农组织(Food and Agriculture Organization)本周证实了黯淡的供应形势，本周下调了对2010年全球小麦产量的预测。粮农组织预测产量为6.51亿吨，较此前的估计下降了3.7%，不过它说，这个数据代表了充足的小麦供应。
不 过，目前的形势看起来并不像2008年那么严峻；2008年，全球粮食减产，小麦价格涨至每蒲式耳13美元上方。据美国农业部的最新预测，明年5月底，美 国的小麦储备将有近3,000万吨，为23年来的最高。2007年至2008年，美国的小麦库存曾跌至有史以来的最低点。
嘉吉公司周四指出，俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦等国的小麦产量明显低于预期，这影响了地区供应。
不过，该公司说，从全球角度来看，美国的小麦生产一直强劲，全球小麦储备高于2008年小麦价格飙升时的水平。
Wheat futures prices soared Thursday to their highest levels in two years after Russia said it would ban grain exports due to a severe drought, a move that heightens concerns about global supplies of the grain and the possible impact on food prices.
September wheat futures at the Chicago board rose the exchange-imposed daily limit of 60 cents to close at $7.85 3/4 a bushel, an 8.3% rise and the highest level since August 29, 2008. U.S. wheat futures have gained nearly 85% from a nine-month low in June amid expectations that demand for U.S. wheat will increase.
The export ban by Russia, a major producer and supplier to other countries, comes after several weeks of deteriorating prospects for the Russian wheat crop. Market participants had speculated in recent days that an export ban was likely, but the full effect of such a possibility clearly hadn't been priced in.
While most market participants don't foresee the kinds of problems that sparked food riots in 2008, the increase in prices and the uncertainty over future supplies of the grain have forced buyers and sellers to recalibrate their plans.
Switzerland's two largest food retailers-Migros-Genossenschafts-Bund and Coop Schweiz-said Thursday they are considering price increases for products that contain wheat. The announcements from the companies, which also own food manufacturing facilities, follows a similar warning Wednesday from the U.K.'s Premier Foods PLC, which also said that the division that sells its flagship Hovis bread will post lower profits in the second half of the year.
The Russian export ban, which affects wheat, corn, barley, rye and flour, is set to run from Aug. 15 until the end of the year, according to a spokesman for Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. Traders with existing contracts may ship only through Aug. 15.
'Due to the abnormally high temperatures and drought, I consider it expedient to introduce a temporary ban on the export from Russia of grain and other agricultural products produced from grain,' Mr. Putin said at a government meeting.
The ban is 'a big deal' because the former Soviet Union has emerged as a major exporter on the world market, said Jerry Gidel, analyst at North America Risk Management Services, a brokerage in Chicago. Russia was the major supplier to Egypt, the world's largest importer, in the crop year that ended in May.
'The key thing is that people were assuming there'd be some kind of exports out of Russia, and now there might not be any for some period of time,' Mr. Gidel said.
The chairman of Egypt's Grain Chamber, Ali Sharaf El Din, said Thursday that Egypt has six months of wheat supplies should shipments of Russian wheat be disrupted.
Nonetheless, a source at the country's Ministry of Trade said Egypt remains 'vulnerable' to problems in Russia due to its heavy reliance on Russian wheat.
'The Russia drought may put Egypt, and other importers of Russian wheat, in a vulnerable situation, given that Russia has been one of our biggest suppliers, but it is not our only source and the situation is not unrecoverable,' the person said.
Ukraine, another major exporter, also has canceled several wheat export contracts due to lack of supply from farmers and other issues, trading executives said. The news heightened fears about tightening supplies because export restrictions in the former Soviet Union helped shove prices to record high prices in early 2008.
The former Soviet Union has been struggling with scorching heat and dryness for weeks, and no significant relief is in sight. The outlook for continued dryness sparked worries that conditions will still be unfavorable when farmers plant their next crop this autumn.
Agribusiness giant Cargill Inc., whose operations include grain sourcing, processing and transport, expressed concerns about trade barriers following news of the Russian export ban.
'Such trade barriers further distort wheat markets by making it harder for supplies to move from areas of surplus to areas of deficit, and by preventing price signals from reaching wheat farmers,' the Minneapolis-based company said in an emailed statement.
The wheat supply concerns are spurring price increases for other grains too. September corn futures in Chicago hit a seven-month high in early trading, rising 6.2% to $4.25 a bushel. Corn and wheat are linked because both grains are used for animal feed. When wheat locks up at the exchange-imposed limit, traders who want to buy grain futures will likely look to CBOT corn and soybeans.
The Food and Agriculture Organization confirmed the bleak supply situation this week, cutting its 2010 global wheat production forecast this week. It pegged production at 651 million metric tons, down 3.7% from its previous estimate, but said that figure represented an adequate supply of the food staple.
However, the situation doesn't appear to be as dire at it was in 2008, when crops failed world-wide and wheat prices rose to more than $13 a bushel. According to the latest projection from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, there there will be almost 30 million tons of wheat in U.S. stockpiles at the end of next May, a 23-year high. U.S. inventories had dropped to an all-time low in 2007-08.
Cargill noted Thursday that wheat crops in countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan are significantly below expectations, which is affecting regional supplies.
'From a global perspective, however, the U.S. wheat crop has been strong and world wheat stocks are higher than they were during the wheat price spikes in 2008,' the Minneapolis-based company said.