字母“D”开头的令人生畏的单词又重新回到人们的视线了，不过我不是指depression（萧条）。在已经避开了这一潜在灾难后，对决策者和投资者而言如今的担忧是deflation（通货紧缩）。
表面来看，通缩──物价下跌──似乎并没有那么糟糕。谁不喜欢不断加大的折扣幅度呢？就像在名牌折扣店Filene's Basement，商品在货架上待的时间越长，价钱就越便宜。
当然，谁又知道通货紧缩究竟给人什么样的感觉，毕竟我们中的多数这辈子都从未经历长时期的通缩。
也 许对那些有着牢固而稳定收入的人来说，通缩是件好事。但通缩会侵蚀利润，贬低资产价值。人们都等着价格降到令他们满意的程度时才出手购买，如此需求便下 降。利润降低令企业消减支出，包括员工成本。这是一种下行式螺旋，而如果日本的经历有任何借鉴意义的话，这种下行趋势是很难阻止的。
通缩 真的是风险吗？上一次拉响通缩警报是在2000年互联网泡沫破裂后，后来证明那只是“狼来了”。我们看到的反而是从房地产、大宗商品到艺术品领域的不断飙 涨的资产价格。美国联邦储备委员会（Federal Reserve）和其他决策机构说，他们决心避免这种现象，但随着联邦赤字的攀升，通缩成为他们最不希望看到的事。（通货膨胀长期以来都是应对巨额赤字的 良方。）尽管短期利率不会真的再走低，美联储还是能重拾去年已不再使用的那些举措，比如购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券。要是非要让我打赌，我押我们会避 免通缩。
但事实是，我不知道。我觉得其他人也不会知道。《华尔街日报》周日报道，包括 太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的格罗斯(Bill Gross)在内的一些大型投资者正认真考虑通缩风险，并相应调整了他们的投资组合。和许多投资者一样，格罗斯和他的同事们三个月前还在重视通胀风险。他 们整个职业生涯都在研究这些问题，对他们的观点我有着合理的尊重。
最近的物价数据支持了他们的看法：6月份整体消费者价格指数(CPI)下降0.1%，5月份为下降0.2%.
那么，个人投资者应如何保护自己不会受到哪怕是丝毫的通缩伤害呢？如果你一直在看我的专栏并加以践行，那么你已经“上路”了。2月份通胀担忧广泛蔓延时，我写过一篇关于应对通胀降低和利率升高的策略的专栏。当时我认为美联储现在将会加息，这样一来便会降低通胀预期。
通胀忧虑随后烟消云散，也意味着这个建议还不错。但不是我所预计的原因。利率一直没有升高，甚至更低了，而且短期内似乎也不大可能上升。这种情况要求有进一步的调整。
2月份时我力劝投资者减少传统的通胀抵御型头寸，如黄金、大宗商品、能源股和通胀保值债券。黄金、贵金属和石油价格已经脱离了峰值，但投资者应继续远离它们。
通 货紧缩对于优质固定收益资产来说是个理想的环境，因为收入流的价值随着物价下跌而增加。2月份时我极力建议固定收益投资者缩短偿付期。这意味着进入优质债 券投资领域，例如投资级公司债、美国国债及有联邦担保的银行存单。要让自己对通缩免疫，投资者应保持对优质投资产品的关注，同时要延长偿付期。这在短期债 券和存单到期时是很容易做到的。另外，手握现金或现金等价物也决对没错，即便是在货币基金利率接近于零的情况下。物价下跌是会令现金增值的。
通常来说，通缩对股票而言是坏消息，因为它会侵蚀利润。有些投资者用交易所交易基金来对冲股市下跌，前者在股市走低时会上涨（今年年初我采取了这一策略，但收获并不大）。格罗斯说他专注于稳固、发放高派息的公司，它们提供的收益与债券不相上下。
通 缩策略的一个好处在于，它们的风险通常很低（回报也低）。正如我2月份所说，通胀和货币政策的变化往往是渐进的。我认为投资者无需因为通缩担忧重燃就大幅 度调整投资组合。近来股市一直处于升势，表明许多投资者并没有格罗斯那么担心出现通缩的可能性。但采取一些适度措施似乎是妥当的，增加较长偿付期的优质固 定收益资产的配置就是不错的开始。
在这种环境下，我们都需要密切关注美联储发表的声明。只需少数政策调整，美联储便可能驱散人们对通缩的担忧情绪。到那时我们所有人又要谈论通货膨胀了。
The dreaded 'D' word is back in circulation, and I don't mean 'depression.' Having skirted that potential calamity, the worry for policy makers and investors now is deflation.
On the face of it, deflation -- falling prices -- doesn't seem like it would be so bad. Who wouldn't welcome discounts that just keep getting better, like those sales at Filene's Basement where prices got lower the longer merchandise stayed on the racks?
Of course, who knows what it really feels like, since most of us have never experienced prolonged deflation in our lifetime.
Maybe deflation would be a nice thing for people with secure, steady incomes. But deflation erodes profits and asset values. People wait to buy expecting lower prices, reducing demand. Lower profits cause companies to cut expenses, including employees. It is a downward spiral that, if Japan's experience is any indication, is difficult to arrest.
Is deflation really a risk? The last deflation scare, after the Internet bubble burst in 2000, turned out to be a false alarm. What we got instead were soaring asset prices, from real estate to commodities to art. The Federal Reserve and other policy makers say they are determined to avoid it, and with the federal deficit having soared, deflation is the last thing they should want. (Inflation is the time-honored cure for big deficits.) Although short-term interest rates can't really go any lower, the Fed can still revive other measures they stopped in the past year, such as buying Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities. If I had to bet, I would say we will avoid deflation.
But the truth is, I don't know. I don't think anyone does. On Sunday, The Wall Street Journal reported that some major investors, including Pimco's Bill Gross, are taking the risk of deflation seriously and adjusting their portfolios accordingly. Like many investors, Mr. Gross and his colleagues were focused on the rising risks of inflation just three months ago. They have spent their entire careers studying these issues, and I have a healthy respect for their opinions.
Recent price data support them. The headline consumer-price index slipped 0.1% in June after falling 0.2% in May.
So how should individual investors protect themselves from even a small risk of deflation? If you have been reading and acting on this column, you already are well on your way. Back in February, when inflation fears were widespread, I wrote a column with a strategy for lower inflation and rising interest rates. I thought the Fed would be raising rates by now, which would lower inflation expectations.
Inflation worries have all but disappeared, which means that advice proved sound. But not for the reason I expected. Interest rates haven't gone up -- they're even lower -- and they don't seem likely to rise soon. That environment requires further adjustments.
In February, I urged investors to reduce exposure to traditional inflation hedges such as gold, commodities, energy and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Gold, precious metals and oil prices are off their peaks, but investors should continue to avoid them.
Deflation is an ideal environment for high-quality fixed-income assets because the value of the income stream rises as prices drop. In February I urged fixed-income investors to shorten maturities. That meant moving into higher-quality bonds, such as investment-grade corporate and Treasurys, as well as federally-guaranteed bank certificates of deposit. To protect against deflation, investors should maintain the focus on high quality, but lengthen maturities. This is easily implemented as short-term bonds and CDs mature. There also is nothing wrong with holding cash or cash equivalents, even with money-fund rates close to zero. Cash gains in value as prices fall.
As a rule, deflation is bad for stocks because it erodes profits. Some investors are hedging against stock declines with exchange-traded funds that rise as stock prices fall (a strategy I tried without much success earlier this year). Pimco's Mr. Gross said he's focusing on solid, high-dividend-paying companies, which offer many of the same benefits as bonds.
One advantage of deflation strategies is that they tend to be very low-risk (and low-return). As I said in February, changes in inflation and monetary policy tend to be gradual. I don't think investors need to radically realign their portfolios just because deflation fears are again on the rise. Lately stocks have been rallying, suggesting that many investors are less concerned with the likelihood of deflation than Mr. Gross. But some modest steps seem in order, starting with a higher allocation to high-quality fixed-income assets with longer maturities.
In this environment we all need to pay close attention to pronouncements from the Fed. With a few policy moves, the Fed could probably banish deflation fears -- and we'll all be talking about inflation again.