场出麻烦了？小麦价格飙升，9月份交割的小麦期货周三触及每蒲式耳7.11美元，较6月低点大涨58%，这令人不禁担心2008年那种因食物短缺而引发的骚乱有可能重演，但真正的问题可能是价格波动风险和通胀。
看 问题必须全面。诚然，俄罗斯和东欧的干旱使农作物受损，俄罗斯将小麦收成预估从9,000万吨调降至7,000-7,500万吨。国际谷物理事会 （International Grains Council）将2010-11年全球产量预估调降至6.51亿吨，比2009-10年下降2,600万吨。市场对俄罗斯可能限制小麦出口的担心也加剧 了价格压力，虽然俄罗斯政府官员对此说法予以了否认。
但谷物库存远高于2008年，国际谷物理事会的产量预估仍是历史上第三高的水平。在美国，良好的天气提高了收成，小麦库存处于23年高位。最近的价格上涨，可能既说明存在食品短缺的前景，也说明投资者对极端情况更加敏感了，以及他们对有利可图交易的渴望。
不过，通胀威胁也是实实在在的。新兴市场消费者吃的肉更多了，这意味着对谷物的需求将会增加，而这将使小麦价格进一步上涨。印度6月份的通胀年率达到10.55%。
就连西方也面临着压力。今年3月美国食品价格创下26年来最大涨幅。经济合作与发展组织(OECD)预计，未来10年谷物、肉类和乳品的平均实际价格将高于1997-2006年水平。
随着税率的上升，消费者将把钱包看得更紧，食品价格对于通胀预期将产生更大影响。对于债市和决策者来说，这可能成为真正头疼的问题。
Trouble down on the farm? Soaring wheat prices -- September futures hit $7.11 a bushel Wednesday, up 58% from June lows -- are triggering fears of a repeat of 2008's food riots. But the real problems may be the risk of volatility and inflation.
Perspective is necessary. Yes, droughts in Russia and Eastern Europe have destroyed crops. Russia cut its wheat-harvest forecast from 90 million metric tons to 70-75 million. The International Grains Council has reduced its global forecast for 2010-11 to 651 million tons, down 26 million tons from 2009-10. Fears of Russian export restrictions, denied by government officials, are adding to the pressure on prices.
But grain stocks are much higher than in 2008. The IGC production forecast is still the third-highest on record. And in the U.S., where good weather is boosting the harvest, wheat stocks are at a 23-year high. The latest price jump probably says as much about heightened investor sensitivity to extreme scenarios, and a desire for juicy-looking trades, as about the prospect of food shortages.
Still, the inflationary threat is real. Emerging-market consumers are eating more meat, meaning higher demand for grain that could push wheat price rises further through the food chain. In India, annualized inflation in June hit 10.55%.
Even in the West there are pressures. The U.S. saw the biggest rise in food prices in 26 years in March. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development expects average real grain, meat and dairy prices to be higher in the coming decade than in 1997-2006.
With consumers watching their wallets as tax increases hit, food prices could have a greater influence on inflation expectations. For bond markets and policy makers, that could become a real bellyache.