国6月19日表示，将让人民币升值，而自2008年以来，人民币汇率一直紧紧盯住美元。新出台的政策虽然令中国在政治上得分，但在经济上却尚未产生任何真正的影响，因自那以来人民币兑美元仅升值了0.8% 。
但 彼得森国际经济研究所(Peterson Institute for International Economics)的资深国际经济学家克莱恩(William Cline)估计，如果人民币兑中国贸易伙伴国的货币经通货膨胀因素调整后的升值幅度达到10%，将产生重大的经济影响。他估计，这将使中国的经常项目盈 余减少1,700亿至2,500亿美元。国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计，中国2010年的经常项目盈余将达3,350亿美元。
克莱恩说，人民币升值对美国的影响是，它将使美国的经常项目赤字减少220亿至630亿美元。IMF估计美国今年的经常项目赤字将达到4,870亿美元。
当然，对于人民币升值会产生多大经济影响这个问题，经济学家们的观点可谓莫衷一是。怀疑论者对人民币升值将对美国产生重大影响的说法表示质疑，因为届时中国的输美产品可能会被其他国家出口到美国的产品取代。
克莱恩承认，在人民币大幅升值18.6%的2005至2008年期间，美国的对华贸易逆差实际上反而增加了。(他说，人民币升值对贸易数字产生影响需要时间。)
但 克莱恩估计的上述数字可能政治意义要大于经济意义。民主党的国会议员们依然对中国的汇率政策感到不快，他们对奥巴马政府在人民币汇率问题上没有向北京施加 更大压力感到不满。彼得森国际经济研究所长期以来一直以宣扬自由贸易而闻名，在有关贸易问题的讨论中，其评估工作已经成了重要的组成部分，它为自由贸易论 者提供了论据。
在美国围绕人民币问题即将展开的立法争斗中，克莱恩给出的评估数字有可能再次成为论据，只不过这一次它们将被反对自由贸易的人当作武器。国会议员们可能会援引彼得森国际经济研究所给出的数据来证明他们不是贸易保护主义者。
国会议员的助手们说，美国任何旨在提振国内制造业的立法，都有可能被塞进制裁北京的条款。
On June 19, China said it would let the yuan appreciate, after being tied as tight as an anchor to the dollar since 2008. The policy gave China a boost politically but it hasn't had any real effect economically, because the yuan has appreciated just 0.8% against the dollar since then.
But William Cline, a veteran international economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, estimates that a 10% rise in the inflation-adjusted value of the yuan against the currencies of its trading partners would have substantial economic effects. It would reduce China's current account surplus, which the International Monetary Fund estimates will hit $335billion in 2010 - by $170 billion to $250 billion, he estimates.
Looking at the U.S., Mr. Cline figures, the change in the value of the yuan would reduce by $22 billion to $63 billion the U.S. current account deficit, which the IMF estimates will hit $487 billion this year
Different economists reach different conclusions, of course. Skeptics doubt that a yuan appreciation would have much effect on the U.S. because imports from China would be replaced from imports from elsewhere around the world.
Mr. Cline acknowledges that the last time the yuan appreciated significantly, by 18.6% between 2005 and 2008, the U.S. trade deficit with China actually widened. (He says it takes time for the appreciation to affect the trade numbers.)
But the importance of Mr. Cline's numbers may be more political than economic. Democratic lawmakers continue to be unhappy about China's currency policies and disappointed that the Obama administration hasn't pushed Beijing harder. The PIIE has long been known as a free-trade advocate and their estimates have become important parts of the debate over trade, giving ammunition to free traders.
Mr. Cline's estimates could play such a role in a coming legislative fight, but this time as a weapon for trade hardliners. Lawmakers may latch on to the PIIE numbers to demonstrate they aren't being protectionist.
Congressional aides say any legislation to boost U.S. manufacturing could become a vehicle to attach crack-down-on-Beijing rules.