亚迪(BYD)的梦想撞上了乏味的现实。
这家中国汽车厂商以其向市场推出电动汽车的计划和得到巴菲特(Warren Buffett)投资而闻名,现在却遭遇困难时期。销售停滞,市场营销信息服务公司J.D. Power & Associates的数据显示,比亚迪6月销售同比仅增长3%。
尤其值得一提的是,比亚迪去年最畅销的车型F3的销售下滑了30%。这款车型所在的小型汽车领域已经成为中国汽车市场竞争最激烈的部分。2010年上半年,比亚迪仅完成了全年80万辆销售目标的36%。
不过考虑到比亚迪的年产能远低于这一水平,其销售目标本身也过高了。比亚迪本来寄希望于在中国西部地区建厂,从而快速提高产能,但地方官员正质询其在当地购买土地的合法性,从而令该项目的前景成疑。
如 果这种状况令比亚迪的牛气势头有所放缓,那或许也不是坏事。2009年和2010年初中国汽车市场确实快速增长,但竞争也愈加激烈。随着针对汽车业的刺激 政策影响消退,总体上的销售增长趋于稳定。咨询公司Synergistics的汽车业专家比尔•拉索(Bill Russo)说,比亚迪就是承诺太多而没有做到的汽车厂商的例子。
如此一来,比亚迪更为广泛的目标也成了问题。该公司仍在努力开发电动汽车,但这类汽车要面向大众市场看来还要多年时间。
当然,并非一切都不如意。如果每月销售能继续6月份有所放缓的增速,比亚迪2010年销售将能轻易超过2009年。
但该公司股票却经历了重新调整,这也不无理由,该股从4月初的高点下滑了33%。数据提供商Starmine的数据显示,比亚迪未来12个月预期市盈率为18.9倍,远远低于56倍的历史高位,但仍高于同行平均的15.9倍。
对于比亚迪来说,现实或许会更尖锐一点。
BYD's dreams are crashing into a humdrum reality.
The Chinese auto maker, famous both for its plans to market electric cars and for an investment from Warren Buffett, has hit a sticky patch. Sales are stalling, up just 3% on year in June, according to data from J.D. Power & Associates.
In particular, sales of the F3 model, BYD's most popular car last year, slumped 30%. The compact car segment it is in has become the most competitive part of China's auto market. Halfway through 2010, BYD is 36% of the way to its sales target of 800,000 vehicles for the year.
That goal was ambitious anyway, given that BYD's annual capacity is far below that level. BYD was hoping to expand its production capability quickly by building a plant in western China, but local officials are querying the legality of its land purchase there, putting the project's future in doubt.
If this helps temper BYD's bullishness, that may be no bad thing. For sure, China's auto sales market expanded rapidly in 2009 and in early 2010. But it is also becoming more competitive. Sales growth in general is leveling off as the impact of stimulus policies for the auto sector fades. BYD is an example of an auto maker that 'overpromised, and is now under-delivering,' says Bill Russo, an auto-industry expert at Synergistics, a consultancy.
That puts BYD's broader aims in doubt. The company is still working hard to develop electric vehicles, but the day they become a mass-market product looks years away.
All, of course, isn't lost. If sales per month carry on at June's slower rate, BYD's sales for 2010 will exceed those in 2009 comfortably.
But its shares have undergone a justifiable re-rating, falling by 33% from a high reached in early April. BYD trades at 18.9 times forecast earnings for the coming 12 months -- way below a historic high of 56 times -- but still ahead of its peer average of 15.9 times, according to data provider Starmine.
Reality may have a little more biting to do for BYD.