球一些领先投资者对于通货紧缩越发担心，正重新调整他们的投资策略，为可能持续一段时间的物价下跌作准备。
债 券基金重量级人物格罗斯（Bill Gross）、投资经理格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）、对冲基金经理泰珀（David Tepper）和福尼尔（Alan Fournier）是正为通货紧缩作准备的知名投资者。通货紧缩可能导致全球经济和世界股市严重受创。
这些投资者称，经济数据疲弱，而且越来越多的人认为，全球决策者不愿、或不能采取更多措施提振经济增长，是他们安排市场头寸所基于的考虑。
格 罗斯说，通货紧缩不仅是人们显示好奇心的一个论题，还是目前正在发生的事情。格罗斯运营着总值2390亿美元的共同基金──太平洋投资管理公司 （Pimco）旗下的总回报基金（Total Return Fund）。他指称过去两年美国消费者物价指数（CPI）年率下降0.1%，他说，这是一个具有不确定性的世界，正滑向通货紧缩。
这些投资者要小心行事才行。市场中的许多人嘲笑通缩将持续的可能性，认为美联储（FED）和其他央行将采取根本措施抑制物价下跌。紧跟在2008年金融危机后的通缩恐慌没有成为现实，主要归因于各央行的干预。
许多明星投资者认为通缩持续的说法并不确定，并预期，由于通缩很有可能成为现实，美联储和其他政府官员将采取根本措施遏制物价下跌。
通缩的初步迹象令格罗斯等人吸纳债券和派息股票等附息投资项目的大量头寸，他们还开始买入防范股市可能下跌的投资工具。在物价下跌时期，企业很难获利，令其股票承压。
近 期数据要为这些忧虑负责。6月消费者物价指数较上年同期增长1.1%，周五美国公布的第二季度国内生产总价（GDP）显示，美联储密切关注的扣除食品和能 源价格后的核心通胀率增长1.1%，为2009年第一季度以来最低增幅。圣路易斯联储银行行长布拉德（James Bullard）上周对可能出现日本那样长的通缩时间和经济缓慢增长发出警告。
这些谈论通缩的主流言论是仅仅两个月前趋势的大逆转，当时交易员关注的重点是通胀而不是通缩。基金经理约翰•鲍尔森（John Paulson）以对美国楼市的押注而闻名，像他这样的投资者吸纳了黄金头寸，并抛出美国国债。
最近几周格罗斯大量买入美国国债。根据晨星（Morningstar Inc.）数据，国债目前占太平洋投资管理公司总回报基金投资组合的约51%，3月底时还不到33%，这是过去六年来该基金持有国债最多的时候。该基金今年迄今累计涨7%。
泰 珀管理着150亿美元对冲基金Appaloosa Management LP，在他的投资组合中，约70%是银行和其他机构的"BB"级和"BBB"级债券。"BB"级是投资级债券中的最低等级，"BBB"是垃圾级债券中的最 高等级。投资者说今年初投资组合中63%为这些债券，今年至今共计涨约12%。他坚持买入在经济增长疲弱、可能出现通缩时期内，有望带来丰厚收益，但相对 安全的债券。泰珀说，我担心经济缓慢增长可能导致定价面临更严峻的环境，这意味着即使整体经济出现通胀，但一些行业也会出现通缩。
人们认为通缩有害，一旦发生就很难解决。物价下跌将使企业和消费者不愿支出和投资，损及企业获利，从而伤害经济。通缩由货币供应量和信贷下降、支出下跌及失业人口居高不下引发，所有这些因素都会迫使企业降价。
Argonaut Capital近期对投资者说，我们担心未来几个月美国核心通胀数据可能将陷入完全的通缩区域，这对较长期固定收益产品来说应是利好。该公司今年迄今回报率大致持平。
Some of the world's leading investors are growing more worried about deflation and are re-shaping their portfolios to prepare for a possible period of falling prices.
Bond-fund heavyweight Bill Gross, investment manager Jeremy Grantham and hedge-fund managers David Tepper and Alan Fournier are among the best-known investors who are bracing for deflation, a development that could cripple global economies and world stock markets.
The investors cite weak economic figures and a mounting consensus that global policy makers are reluctant, or unable, to take further steps to boost growth as reasons for their market positions.
'Deflation isn't just a topic of intellectual curiosity, it's happening,' says Mr. Gross, who runs the $239 billion mutual fund Pimco Total Return Fund, citing an annualized 0.1% drop over the past two years in the U.S. consumer-price index. 'It's an uncertain world that's tipping toward deflation.'
These investors are walking a fine line. Many in the market scoff at the possibility of extended deflation, betting the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks will take radical steps to arrest broad price declines. Deflation scares immediately following the 2008 financial crisis didn't materialize, in large part because central banks intervened.
Many of these star investors don't see extended deflation as a sure bet and predict that, as deflation becomes more likely, the Federal Reserve and other government officials will take radical steps to arrest the decline.
Still, preliminary signs of deflation are spurring Mr. Gross and the others to take on huge positions of interest-bearing investments such as bonds and dividend-paying stocks. They have also begun buying protection against possible stock-market losses. In a period of falling prices, companies can find it challenging to generate profits, putting pressure on stocks.
Recent data are responsible for the worries. The consumer-price index rose 1.1% in June compared with a year earlier. Friday's report on second-quarter gross domestic product showed the underlying inflation rate-which excludes volatile moves in food and energy prices and is closely watched by the Fed-increased 1.1%, the lowest reading since the first quarter of 2009. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard last week warned of a Japan-like period of deflation and slow growth.
Such mainstream talk about deflation is a sharp reversal from just two months ago, when inflation, not deflation, was the focus of traders. Investors such as John Paulson, renowned for his bets against the U.S. housing market, piled on gold positions and dumped U.S. Treasurys.
Mr. Gross has been aggressively buying U.S. government debt in recent weeks. Treasurys now account for about 51% of the portfolio of his Pimco Total Return fund, up from less than 33% at the end of March. It is as high an allocation to government securities for the fund as at any time in the past six years, according to Morningstar Inc. The fund has gained 7% this year.
Mr. Tepper, who runs the $15 billion hedge fund Appaloosa Management LP, has about 70% of his portfolio in bonds rated 'BB' and 'BBB'-the lowest end of the investment-grade spectrum and the upper tier of 'junk'-from banks and others. That is up from 63% earlier this year, investors say, helping him score gains of about 12% in 2010. He is sticking with credits that promise generous yields but still are relatively safe bets in any period of weak growth and potential deflation. 'I'm concerned that slower growth may lead to a much tougher environment for pricing,' Mr. Tepper says. 'That can mean deflation in some industries, even if we get inflation in the overall economy.'
Deflation is seen as pernicious and hard to address once it sets in. Falling prices can make businesses and consumers reluctant to spend and invest, hurting profits and crippling the economy. It can be caused by a drop in the money supply and credit, declining spending and high unemployment, all of which can encourage companies to cut prices.
'We fear that core inflation readings in the United States could dip into outright deflationary territory in coming months,' Argonaut Capital, whose returns are flat for the year, recently told investors. 'This should be a positive for longer-dated fixed income.'