管中国决定采用弹性汇率，但国际货币基金组织（International Monetary Fund）官员表示，该组织拖延时间较长的对中国经济的观察显示，人民币汇率“实质上被低估。”
国 际货币基金组织的决定意在向北京施压，让人民币更大幅度地升值。6月19日中国允许人民币与美元脱钩以来，人民币仅升值0.7%。两位了解这一决定的人士 表示，国际货币基金组织的决定受到美国、德国、法国和英国等国家的支持，国际货币基金组织执行委员会周一讨论了中国的报告，不过这些国家中无一强迫中国快 速提升人民币汇率。
在中国，央行一直向公众解释说，弹性汇率可以通过缓解通胀压力、改善货币政策的效果来扶助经济。
周一在国际货币基金组织执行委员会召开会议前，中国人民银行副行长胡晓炼在不到两周内发表第三次声明，说明上月政府决定允许人民币与美元实际脱钩的原因，中国出口企业和其他一些利益集团公开反对人民币汇率变化。
她的言论响应了国际货币基金组织和全球其他机构的论点，但从中国一位官员的口中说出有点不太寻常。花旗集团（Citigroup）经济学家彭星表示，这种公开声明非常少见，胡晓炼讲话的语气实际上越来越强了。
目前还不清楚国际货币基金组织的决定是将加强北京方面汇率重估的力度，还是引起北京的强烈抵制。一个风向标是，未来几周中国是否将阻挠国际货币基金组织出版周一决定的更详细的总结。除非中国拒绝允许其出版，否则国际货币基金组织的全部分析报告可能将于9月出版。
国际货币基金组织成员有资格阻挠该组织评估报告的出版，不过多数国家允许出版。美国一直施压要求北京方面允许该分析报告出版。
由 于中国与国际货币基金组织在人民币与美元挂钩的政策上争执不休，自2007年以来中国一直没有允许国际货币基金组织对中国经济进行年度评估。2008年， 中国开始实施将人民币与美元挂钩的政策。国际货币基金组织最大的股东美国和欧洲抱怨说，这一政策给了中国出口商不公平的优势。2010年春，国际货币基金 组织开始了这次对中国经济的评估。
康乃尔大学(Cornell University)经济学家、前国际货币基金组织中国部负责人普拉萨德(Eswar Prasad)说，他看过的一份国际货币基金组织工作人员报告草案对北京方面让人民币汇率浮动的决定表示了肯定。报告还强调，近几个月中国经常项目盈余下 滑，这可能表示人民币汇率处于合理水平。不过，国际货币基金组织预测，经常项目盈余的变化只是暂时的，4月份它也做出过同样的判定。普拉萨德说，需要采取 “重大行动”来减少人民币的低估。数位人士说，在中国经常项目这一问题上，巴西基本上支持中国的立场。
他说，中国官员说，他们已经采取了必要的措施，其他国家应该给他们一定的行动空间。另外一位熟悉评估的人士说，报告的结果与草案并没有太大的变化。
在 公布在中国央行网站上的有关人民币汇率问题的最新讲话中，胡晓炼重点强调了通货膨胀的危险性。对任何央行行长来说，这都是一个熟悉的领域，不过胡晓炼引用 了主张自由市场的传奇式经济学家弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)的话──通货膨胀是一种危险的有时甚至会致命的疾病，进而使得论战升温。
她 说，“从中国的现实来看，受通货膨胀损害最大的是低收入群体，尤其是我国4000多万的城镇低收入群体和近亿人的农民工，处理不当容易对社会公平和稳定造 成影响”。经济学家们说，这样的言论或许意味着，如果央行觉察有通胀风险，它愿意让人民币进一步升值。不过，汇率和货币政策上的重大决策需要获得中国最高 政治领导层的批准。
Despite China's decision to adopt a 'flexible' exchange rate, the International Monetary Fund's long-delayed review of the Chinese economy found that the yuan is 'substantially undervalued,' according to IMF officials.
The IMF determination is bound to put pressure on Beijing to let the currency appreciate more than the 0.7% it has risen since China loosened the yuan's peg to the dollar on June 19. The IMF determination was backed by the U.S., Germany, France, the U.K., among others, say two individuals familiar with the deliberations, as the IMF's executive board debated the China report on Monday, though none of the countries pushed China to boost its currency quickly.
(This story and related background material will be available on The Wall Street Journal Web site, WSJ.com.)
In China, the central bank had been explaining to the public how a flexible exchange rate can help the economy by alleviating inflation pressures and improving the effectiveness of monetary policy.
On Monday, before the IMF's board met, Hu Xiaolian, a respected deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, made her third statement in less than two weeks addressing the reasons for the government's decision last month to loosen the yuan's de facto peg against the U.S. dollar, a change that was vocally opposed by Chinese exporters and some other interest groups.
Her comments echoed arguments made by IMF and other global institutions, but were unusual coming from a Chinese official. 'This kind of openness is very rare,' said Ken Peng, an economist at Citigroup. 'The tone of Hu's statements has actually grown stronger as they have come out.'
It's unclear whether the IMF's determination will strengthen the hand of those in Beijing urging a revaluation, or create a backlash. One indication of the direction will be whether China will block the IMF from publishing a detailed summary of the board's Monday deliberations over the next few weeks. The full IMF analysis would likely be published in September unless China withholds its permission.
IMF members are entitled to block publication of IMF reviews, though most allow publication. The U.S. has been pressing Beijing to permit publication.
China hadn't allowed the IMF to conduct an annual review of its economy since 2007 as the two sides fought over China's policy of pegging the yuan tightly to the dollar, a policy that China put in place in 2008. The U.S. and Europe--the IMF's largest shareholders--complained that policy gave Chinese exporters an unfair advantage. The IMF began the current review in the spring of 2010.
Eswar Prasad, a Cornell University economist and a former head of the IMF's China desk, said a draft of the IMF staff report he had seen noted positively Beijing's decision to let its currency float. The report also highlighted that China's current-account surplus had fallen in recent months--which could be an indication that the currency is properly valued. But the IMF forecast that the change in the surplus was only temporary, a determination it had made in April as well. 'Significant action' was needed to reduce the undervaluation,' Mr. Prasad said. Brazil largely backed the Chinese position on the current-account question, say several individuals.
Chinese officials said 'they have done what they needed to do and the rest of the world should give them room' to act, he said. Another individual familiar with the deliberations said the report's finding hadn't changed significantly from the draft.
In Ms. Hu's latest statement on the yuan, which was posted on the central bank's website, she focused on the dangers of inflation. That is familiar territory for any central banker, but Ms. Hu turned up the rhetorical heat by quoting legendary free-market economist Milton Friedman's statement that inflation is 'a dangerous and sometimes fatal disease.'
'Looking at China's situation, those who suffer greatest from inflation are the low-income masses, especially China's over 40 million poor urban residents and nearly 100 million poor migrant workers, a situation which if improperly handled will affect social equality and stability,' she said. Such comments probably indicate that the central bank would like to allow the yuan to appreciate further if it perceives inflationary risks, economists said. But major decisions on currency and monetary policy require approval from China's top political leadership.