周金价跌至两个月低点，但分析师和交易员认为，未来几周需求强劲足以抵御金价更急速的下滑。
上周二金价从6月高点下挫7%，跌至每盎司1,175美元，但上周余下时间温和反弹，周末收于1,187.70美元。金价反弹是在投资者忧虑持续缓和之际，投资者忧虑通常是带动金价上涨的主要因素。
过 去三年黄金这一避险工具的吸引力提升了金价，6月18日期金在纽约商品期货交易所（Comex）收于每盎司1,257.20美元的纪录高位。去年金价累计 涨25%，在金融危机中一直是表现最好的资产之一。今年上半年，欧元区主权债务危机令人们对欧元疑虑重重，黄金因而受益。
美国贵金属咨询公司（American Precious Metals Advisors）董事总经理尼科尔斯（Jeffrey Nichols）上周在报告中说，资金从欧元涌入美元和黄金等避险资产的趋势目前已减缓，但无论如何这不会弱化我们对金价长期看多的观点。
他说，实际上，无论是近期对黄金的抛盘，还是未来几天或几周金价的可能进一步短暂下跌，仅会使黄金对长期投资者更具吸引力。
人们对黄金的短期前景看法不一。伦敦经纪商Triland Metals警告说，金价可能将跌至技术支撑位每盎司1,170美元。但巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）表示，应该把金价回调视为“暂时和反趋势的。”
巴克莱资本分析师库珀（Suki Cooper）说，人们对黄金的长期兴趣依然旺盛，风险情绪的任何重大变动只会加剧“市场的短期波动。”
库珀说，目前我们看到众多买兴是来自长期投资者，我们没有看到买兴减弱。
其他可能提升金价的因素包括新兴经济体的需求，中国最新公布的贸易数据显示，中国对贵金属以及品种不断增加的黄金为基础的交易所买卖基金（ETF）、票据和其他产品需求持续旺盛。
再者，印度节日和结婚旺季很快将开始，黄金珠宝需求料将增加。根据世界黄金协会（World Gold Council）数据，珠宝仍占全球黄金需求的逾三分之二，投资需求则不到五分之一。
德国商业银行（Commerzbank）在本周的报告中说，在珠宝需求上升之外，金屑供应下降可能将为金价提供额外支撑。2010年第一季度金屑供应减少43%，降至343吨。
央 行买入黄金也可能在未来金价中发挥作用。世界黄金协会在近期的研究报告中说，厌恶风险的央行在储备中应该最多配置8.5%的黄金。德国商业银行黄金分析师 温伯格（Eugen Weinberg）说，中国需要购买4,400吨黄金，才能达到这一水平。他补充说，俄罗斯央行和印度央行储备中黄金所占比重分别为5.5%和7.5%， 这两家央行可能也是黄金买家。
德国商业银行指称黄金的长期前景有利，并预计今年年底前金价将升至每盎司1,250美元，2011年年底将达到1,350美元。
Gold prices slid to a two-month low last week, but analysts and traders believe demand is robust enough to prevent an even sharper drop in prices in coming weeks.
After falling to $1,175 a troy ounce Tuesday, a 7% drop from the June high, gold prices rebounded modestly through the rest of the week to close at $1,187.70. The comeback occurred even as investor fear -- often a key driver of gold prices -- continued to ease.
Gold's appeal as a haven in time of trouble has boosted prices over the past three years, with the precious metal reaching a record Comex futures close of $1,257.20 an ounce June 18. Gold is up 25% in the past year and has been one of the best-performing assets through the financial crisis. In the first half of the year, gold benefited from worries about the euro amid a sovereign-debt crisis along the periphery of the common-currency zone.
'The rush from euros into safe-haven assets, namely the U.S. dollar and gold, has, for now, abated,' Jeffrey Nichols, managing director of American Precious Metals Advisors, said in a report last week. 'None of this has, in any way, however reduced our long-term bullish view of gold-price prospects.'
'In fact,' he said, 'the recent selloff -- and any further short-term price decline that may occur in the next few days or weeks -- simply makes gold that much more attractive to long-term investors.'
The near-term outlook for gold is mixed. London-based broker Triland Metals warns that gold may fall to $1,170 an ounce, considered a technical support level. Barclays Capital, however, says any retreat should be seen as 'temporary and countertrend.'
Barclays analyst Suki Cooper says longer-term interest remains robust, and that any marked shift in risk sentiment would merely add 'to the short-term volatility in the market.'
'A lot of the interest we are seeing at the moment is from long-term investors, and we don't see that abating,' Ms. Cooper said.
Other factors that could boost gold include demand from emerging economies -- the latest Chinese trade data show a continued healthy appetite for precious metals -- and the increasing range of gold-based exchange-traded funds, notes and other products.
Moreover, with India's festival and wedding season soon to start, gold jewelry demand is expected to get a boost. According to the World Gold Council, jewelry consistently accounts for more than two-thirds of global gold demand, whereas investment demand is less than one-fifth.
In a report this week, Commerzbank said that, in addition to burgeoning jewelry demand, falling scrap supplies could offer additional support to gold prices. There was a 43% slide in the supply of gold scrap in the first quarter of 2010, down to 343 tons, the bank said.
Central-bank gold purchases may also play a role in future gold prices. The World Gold Council in a recent study said a risk-averse central bank should hold as much as 8.5% of its reserves in gold. Commerzbank gold analyst Eugen Weinberg said China would have to buy 4,400 tons of gold to reach that level. He added that central banks in Russia, at 5.5% of reserves, and India, 7.5% of reserves, could also be buyers.
Commerzbank described gold's long-term outlook as 'favorable' and said it expects prices to rise to $1,250 an ounce by the end of the year and $1,350 by the end of 2011