邦保险(AIA)能再现中国农业银行的声势吗？
美 国国际集团(American International Group Inc.，简称：AIG)似乎自大地决定要检验一下自身能否复制中国农业银行的成功，此前农业银行首次公开募股(IPO)在不太景气的市场情况下成为全球 规模最大IPO之一。本月农业银行在香港和上海两地同时上市，成功筹集资金192.3亿美元。AIG正在考虑年内让旗下主要的亚洲人寿保险公司友邦 （AIA Group Ltd.）上市，这一行动有可能筹资120亿至150亿美元，从而跻身史上规模最大的十桩IPO之列。
这两桩交易 最大的动力都全然是出于意志力。即便在希腊出现债务危机、全球市场疲弱之际，中国仍坚持农业银行的上市计划，正确地押注了中国作为投资避风港对饱受打击的 全球投资者的吸引力能够胜出，当然还有其他一些因素。本默切(Robert Benmosche)领导的AIG因先前未能将友邦保险售予英国保诚集团(Prudential PLC)而受到打击，现在正重新启动其3月份放弃的IPO计划，显然是认定当前的市场状况将可以使其年内向美国纳税人偿付与保诚集团交易金额大致相当的资 金。
友邦的顾问说，他们将借鉴农业银行的做法，寻求包括主权财富基金和其他机构投资者在内的所谓基础投资者的支持，以此消化很大一部分所发行的股票。
但 无论农业银行的IPO是成功之举还是中看不中用的哑炮，向农业银行投资1亿美元还可以说是与中国政府搞好关系并进军一个重要的成长市场之举。而买入大量友 邦股份能否博得华盛顿的监管机构和领导人的好感、从而创造价值，这就很难说了。因此友邦IPO更重要的还是其业务基本面。
友 邦拥有强有力的品牌、在15个亚洲市场运营，随着它任命保诚前首席执行长图克尔(Mark Tucker)为CEO，它还有了很有希望的新管理层。不过友邦欠缺农业银行的一些优势：强大的中国题材。虽然友邦是唯一一家在中国拥有独立牌照的外国保 险商，但其在华市场占有率依然很小。友邦最大的收入来源是香港、新加坡和韩国等更为成熟的市场。这些市场也不容小觑，但无法提供中国大陆的增长潜力。
与此同时，除非市场不景气状况突然中止，否则友邦的股票发行将遇到强烈的阻碍。欧洲债务危机未见缓和，美国经济仍显疲弱。因农业银行上市而采取观望态度的各家中资银行现在预计也将大举发行商业票据以调整资本结构。
当 然，友邦的股票价格将会是关键所在。银行家们说，他们将保诚集团最初同意支付AIG的355亿美元作为基准。但保诚集团的股东迫使管理层放弃原先的计划， 将收购报价降至304亿美元，被AIG拒绝。与此同时，在今年其他亚洲保险商股票普遍下滑的情况下（剔除日本的摩根士丹利资本国际保险业指数下跌 7.3%），友邦在确定发行价格时将面临很大压力，不能不受其影响。
顾问说，友邦或可在计划中的IPO之外，通过额外出售股份再筹集50 亿-80亿美元。如果有合适的中国战略投资者成为其买家之一，形势就会发生变化。比如说，如果一家中资银行或保险公司买下友邦10%的股份，并在其董事会 获得一个席位，就会大大增加友邦对于投资者的吸引力，尤其是如果它能达成进一步合作的谅解备忘录的话（无论措辞有多含混）。而如果能通过这样一桩交易获得 一家一流的跨国保险公司的运营诀窍，中国买家也会看到其中的价值所在。
要是AIG能在看似平淡的过程中插入一个出人意料的结局，也许会最有效地复制农业银行IPO的成功。
Can AIA pull off an AgBank?
American International Group Inc. seems hubristically determined to test whether it can repeat Agricultural Bank of China Ltd.'s success at launching one of the world's biggest initial public offerings in the middle of a lousy market. This month, AgBank successfully raised $19.23 billion with its dual listings in Hong Kong and Shanghai. AIG is eyeing a listing before the year's end of its main Asian life-insurance arm, AIA Group Ltd., that could fetch $12 billion to $15 billion, which would put it in the top 10 list of biggest IPOs in history.
The biggest driver of both deals is sheer willpower. China stuck to the AgBank listing plan even when Greece imploded and global markets swooned, betting correctly that, among other things, its own appeal as a safe haven for shell-shocked global investors would win the day. Robert Benmosche's AIG, smarting from the collapse of its deal to sell AIA to the U.K.'s Prudential PLC, is now reviving the IPO plan it abandoned in March with the apparent conviction that market conditions won't hinder its ability to repay U.S. taxpayers roughly the same money a Pru deal promised before year's end.
AIA's advisers say they will steal a page from AgBank's playbook by seeking support from so-called cornerstone investors, including sovereign-wealth funds and other institutions, to absorb a large chunk of the share offering.
But whether its an IPO star or a dud, investing $100 million in AgBank was justified as buying goodwill with Beijing and access to a major growth market. It is less clear if buying a chunk of AIA would create valuable good feelings among regulators and leaders in Washington. So the case has to be much more about the fundamentals of AIA's business.
AIA has a great brand, a footprint in 15 Asian markets and, with the appointment of ex-Prudential Chief Executive Mark Tucker as its CEO, promising new management. But it lacks one of AgBank's advantages: a great China story. Although AIA is the only foreign insurer with its own license in China, its market share there remains tiny. AIA's biggest revenue generators are more mature markets, including Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea. These are nothing to sneeze at, but they don't offer mainland China's growth potential.
Meanwhile, barring a sudden abatement of market gloom, AIA's offering will be fighting serious headwinds. Europe's debt crisis hasn't eased much, and the U.S. economy looks weak. Chinese banks, kept on hold by AgBank's debut, are now expected to flood the market with paper in recapitalizations.
AIA's price will, of course, be key. Bankers say they view the $35.5 billion Prudential originally agreed to pay AIG as their benchmark. But Pru's own investors forced management to back down and offer a lower price of $30.4 billion, which AIG refused. Meanwhile, with shares of other Asian insurers down for the year -- the MSCI Asia ex-Japan Insurance Index is down 7.3% -- AIA will be hard-pressed not to feel the impact when they hammer out the offer's pricing.
Advisers say AIA might add to its planned IPO haul by raising another $5 billion to $8 billion through additional stake sales. The dynamics could change if the right strategic investor from China is one of the buyers. A Chinese bank or an insurer that takes, say, a 10% stake and a seat on the board could lend it some sheen with investors, especially if it throws in a memorandum of understanding for future cooperation (however vague the wording). And a Chinese buyer might see the value of such a deal if it offers access to the know-how of a first-rate multinational insurance company.
AIG might most effectively copy the AgBank IPO success story by inserting a surprise ending into the narrative.