那些相信全球经济增长将会放缓但肯定会复苏的投资者来说，香港巨商李嘉诚经营的蓝筹企业集团和记黄埔有限公司(Hutchison Whampoa Ltd.)颇有投资价值。
目前，和记黄埔的股价低迷，2010年初至今下跌了10%，交易价格接近过去52周来的低点。香港投资者大多绕过和记黄埔这样的本地企业集团，转而青睐在香港上市的中国大型国企，因为它们与中国的经济增长故事息息相关。
由于主权债务危机的扩散以及市场对政府紧缩政策的讨论，投资者对欧元区经济体的市场需求前景日渐担忧，和记黄埔在欧洲市场的风险部位也因此受到关注，同时还受到长期投资者对于其亏损的3G电信业务的质疑。
不过，其他几个因素让投资者对这家颇有潜力的赚钱机器另眼相看。首先，公司在欧洲的风险部位已经过多地体现在其股价之中；其次，公司在中国的零售业务增长潜能巨大；第三，公司管理层正在通过回购股票和考虑更高分红来向股东传递正面的信号。
从 很多角度来看，和记黄埔的股价看上去都很便宜。据高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)估计，在2010年预期盈利的基础上，目前公司股价的市盈率在14.7倍左右，如根据2011年的预期盈利，则市盈率为9.8倍。这要比和记 黄埔的竞争对手香港太古股份有限公司(Swire Pacific Ltd.)和九龙仓集团有限公司(Wharf (Holdings) Ltd.)便宜。此外，和记黄埔目前的市值仅为其净资产价值的60%左右。
和记黄埔是 一个港口及电信企业集团，业务主要集中在大中华区和欧洲。公司通过旗下的赫斯基能源公司(Husky Energy Inc.)在能源领域有大规模的配置，该子公司在加拿大和中国拥有各种资产；此外，公司还在香港和中国大陆拥有不少房地产。不过，如果中国政府未来还要给 房地产价格过快上涨继续降温，则公司的房地产业务将拖累整体的盈利情况。
和记黄埔“已经不再是香港股市的宠儿”。花旗集团 (Citigroup)的分析师说道。但他们表示，和记黄埔的估值看上去比较便宜，将会成为投资者的摇钱树，这是一个“缓慢但必然的过程”。花旗集团将和 记黄埔的股票定为“买入”，目标价格67港元（约合8.62美元），而公司2010年7月20号的收盘价为48港元。
拖累和记黄埔股价的 罪魁祸首一直是亏损的3G电信业务，其在英国和意大利都有大规模的运营。2009年，3G业务给公司带来90亿港元的亏损，但根据瑞士银行(UBS)的预 测，今年3G业务给公司盈利状况带来的负面影响要小一些，预计亏损12亿港元。全球经济衰退削弱了和记黄埔尽快让该业务达到收支平衡的努力，但3G业务对 公司盈利的拖累效应似乎已到了尾声。整体而言，和记黄埔2009年的净利润为142亿港元，比2008年的127亿港元增长了12%。
公 司在欧洲的风险敞口主要体现在电信和零售业务上，虽然比大多数香港上市公司多，但比人们想象的要少。这种风险敞口“从营业收入和总资产角度来说的影响要比 从利润和估值角度大得多”。瑞士银行的分析师说道。他们预测欧洲市场对公司的盈利贡献仅为18%，这一数字不包括和记黄埔旗下亏损的移动运营商3 Group。简而言之，投资者早就把欧洲市场的疲软回报考虑在股价之中，任何好于预期的欧洲经济数据都可能令公司股价出现超乎预期的上扬。
公 司最大的亮点是零售和港口业务，两者都能从全球经济复苏和中国持续增长中获益。全球贸易的恢复会对港口业务形成利好。2010年上半年，集装箱吞吐量增长 了22%，主要受到中国南部港口与欧美市场贸易活动加强的提振。和记黄埔在中国南部的港口业务理所当然地能从这一复苏中获益。
公司整体营 业收入为3000亿港元，其中零售业务，包括屈臣氏(Watson)连锁店，占了39%。公司正逐步加快在中国零售领域的布局扩张，并已培育出一个高端品 牌。公司还利用自己庞大的购买能力来与供应商议价，以此降低成本，这将给公司未来的零售业务带来更大的利润率。
和记黄埔的管理层也在向投资者发送信号，告诉他们未来将能从公司经营业绩的改善上获益。香港证交所公布的信息显示，持有公司52%股份的李嘉诚过去几个月来一直在回购股票，最近一次回购是在7月5号，价格为每股48港元。
李 嘉诚还可能提高和记黄埔的股息。目前，公司每年分给投资者1.73港元的股息，从2001年以来这一金额就没有改变过。瑞士银行的分析师表示，3 Group电信业务的改善有可能成为一个催化剂，让公司未来三年的股息实现一个高达40%的累积增长。瑞士银行也把和记黄埔的股票定为“买入”，目标价格 为每股64港元。
另一个提升公司股价的动力也许在2010年8月5日公司发布上半年财报时出现。投资者可能会开始意识到和记黄埔企业价值 的改善，尤其是2009年上半年的基数较弱，因此2010年的同比增长会显得更为强劲。管理层对于提高股息的暗示也会让和记黄埔成为一些投资者青睐的目 标，他们会在股价便宜时买入，从中获取丰厚的回报。
Hutchison Whampoa Ltd., the blue-chip conglomerate run by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing, could offer value for investors willing to bet that the global economy will slowly but surely recover.
Hutchison's shares have taken a beating, falling 10% year-to-date and trading close to their 52-week lows. Investors in Hong Kong have mostly bypassed local conglomerates such as Hutchison in favor of big Chinese state-owned firms that offer direct exposure to China's growth story.
Concerns have emerged over Hutchison's exposure to Europe at a time when overextended sovereign debt and discussion of austerity measures are raising concerns about future demand from euro-zone economies. The company has also faced long-standing investor skepticism over its unprofitable third-generation, or 3G, telecommunications business.
However, several factors warrant investors taking another look at this potential cash cow. The company's exposure to Europe is more than fully priced into its shares, for one. Its retail franchise in China offers strong growth potential. And the company's management is sending the right signals to shareholders by buying stock and considering a higher dividend.
The company's shares are looking cheap on a number of measures. Hutchison's shares trade around 14.7 times expected 2010 earnings and 9.8 times 2011 earnings, according to Goldman Sachs estimates, which is cheaper than rival conglomerates Swire Pacific Ltd. and Wharf (Holdings) Ltd. Hutchison also trades at a roughly 40% discount to its net asset value.
Hutchison is a ports-to-telecommunications conglomerate whose portfolio of business is concentrated in Greater China and Europe. It also has substantial interests in energy through its Husky Energy Inc. affiliate, which has assets in Canada and China, as well as property holdings in Hong Kong and mainland China. The exposure to property could be a drag on earnings if future efforts by mainland Chinese authorities to cool a rise in housing prices overshoot.
Hutchison is 'no longer the darling of the Hong Kong stock market it once was,' Citigroup analysts say. But they say valuations look cheap and 'slowly but surely Hutch is becoming a cash cow.' Citigroup rates Hutchison shares a buy with a price target of 67 Hong Kong dollars (US$8.62), compared with their closing price of HK$48 Tuesday.
The biggest drag on Hutchison's shares has been its money-losing 3 Group telecommunications business, which has substantial operations in the U.K. and Italy. The business lost HK$9 billion last year but is expected to make a smaller dent in this year's earning with a HK$1.2 billion loss, according to a UBS forecast. The global recession has delayed Hutchison's ability to break even with the business, but its drag on earnings appears to be coming to an end. Overall, Hutchison reported HK$14.2 billion in net profit for 2009, up 12% from HK$12.7 billion in 2008.
The company's direct exposure to Europe through its telecommunications and retail businesses, while larger than most other Hong Kong-listed firms, is less than meets the eye. Hutchison's exposure 'is far greater in terms of revenues and gross assets than in terms of profits and valuation,' UBS analysts say. They estimate that Europe provided just 18% of profit, excluding the money-losing 3 Group. In short, investors have already priced in weak returns on the European business, and any upside from stronger-than-expected European economic data could provide an unexpected boost.
The brightest spots are the retail businesses and ports operations, both of which appear set to benefit from any improvement in the global economy and China's continued resilience. Port operations should benefit from improved global trade. In the first half of this year, container throughput increased 22%, led by stronger activity in southern China linked to U.S. and Europe trade. Hutchison's port operations in southern China are poised to benefit from that rebound.
The retail business, which includes the Watson's brand of pharmacies, generated 39% of the firm's HK$300 billion in revenue. Increasingly, the firm is expanding its retail franchise in China, where it has cultivated a high-end brand presence. It has also used the company's huge purchasing power to pressure suppliers and reduce its costs. That translates into stronger margins for the retail division going forward.
The company's management is also sending signals that indicate investors will share in the gains from any improved performance. Mr. Li, who owns close to 52% of the company, has been buying shares in recent months. His latest purchase was on July 5 at HK$48 a share, according to a stock exchange filing.
Mr. Li has also flagged a potential increase in Hutchison's dividend. It currently pays investors HK$1.73 a year in dividends, which has remained unchanged since 2001. UBS analysts say an improvement in the 3 Group telecommunications business could be a catalyst for as much as 40% cumulative growth in dividends over the next three years. UBS also rates Hutchison shares a buy and has a price target of HK$64 a share.
Another impetus for an upward revaluing of Hutchison could come on Aug. 5 when it reports first-half results. Investors might begin to catch on to Hutchison's improving value proposition, especially given year-on-year comparisons should be stronger from the weak base of first half 2009. Any indication that management is moving ahead with plans to raise the dividend should also make Hutchison an attractive cash cow for investors willing to buy in while the stock is cheap.