资者近期对欧元的迷恋可能仅是夏天的一次艳遇。
在周三午后下跌前，欧元兑美元自6月7日以来已上涨超过9%，本周从略低于1.19美元的四年低点升至1.30美元。
欧元受益于欧洲趋势的一些好转：对该地区主权债务的忧虑已减轻，投资者预期对欧洲各银行的压力测试将缓和对银行体系崩溃的担忧。
但许多人说，欧元更反映了人们对美国经济的担忧，而不是对欧洲经济的乐观。多伦多Scotia Capital外汇策略师萨顿（Camilla Sutton）说，多数人似乎非常怀疑欧元的涨势。
萨顿就处于怀疑阵营中。她预计下季度初期欧元将再走出一轮疲势，今年底欧元兑美元将报1.19。
大肆宣扬的银行压力测试本周五将公布结果，市场可能已将其消化。
就证据来说，欧元空头指出欧元兑日圆走势乏力，6月7日以来欧元兑日圆涨幅不到2%。野村证券（Nomura Securities）外汇策略师诺德维格（Jens Nordvig）说，在欧元的上涨中美元起了很大作用，市场对美元的评估发生了很大改变。
带动这一走势的是美国公布的一系列经济数据弱于预期，与此同时欧洲债务危机时的美元避险买盘开始消退。一些交易员说，他们看到长期投资者重新出现，买入欧元计价的投资产品，一些人臆测中国身处这些长期投资者中。
基于Consensus Economics7月12日对102家企业进行的调查，他们一致预估，第三季度末欧元兑美元将报1.21美元，今年底报1.20美元。5月时曾预估本季度末欧元将略低于1.30美元，今年年底报1.294。
投资者人气也是一边倒。6月末时，欧元兑美元报1.24美元左右，巴克莱资本（Barclays Capital）对客户的调查发现，只有4%的客户预计欧元将上涨，倒有80%的客户预测欧元将持平至下跌。
欧元的动荡走势把许多人打个措手不及。货币观察家刚刚调整了他们的预估以说明跌势，欧元就开始上涨了。欧元最惨的时候是今年6月初，从去年11月高点累计下跌了21%。
这一走势让高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group）驻伦敦外汇策略师斯托尔帕（Thomas Stolper）这样的欧元多头尤其难受。5月时，斯托尔帕预计年底前欧元将反弹至1.35美元，主要因为预期美国经济增长将放缓并拖低美元。
6月斯托尔帕将欧元短期预估大幅调降至1.15美元，将一年后汇率预估调整至1.25美元。这位分析师说，他误判了希腊债务危机引发的政治不确定性。
上周投资者对债务危机蔓延的最严重忧虑消退，高盛重新回到更看多欧元兑美元的长期偏好，将六个月后欧元兑美元预估调升至1.35美元，一年后预估调升至1.38美元。
斯托尔帕说，美国有较欧洲更大的结构性问题，包括失业人口居高不下、楼市低迷、储蓄率较低，以及联邦预算赤字庞大等，不一而足。他说，由此而产生的结果是，在相当长时间内美国面临经济增长更疲弱的走势，这将损及美元。
即便如此，斯托尔帕仍认为欧元下跌机会更大，未来三个月欧元兑美元将再次下跌，挫至1.22美元。
他说，我们不想解除欧洲的政治压力警报信号。他指出法国工会呼吁在9月7日举行大罢工，这类事件可能将对欧元产生不利影响。
对欧元持利空看法的原因是，人们认为未来几个季度欧洲经济增长将因希腊债务危机后的财政紧缩政策而受到打压，希腊因举债过高而面临投资者的拷问。
Investors' recent romance with the euro may just be a summer fling.
Before taking a midafternoon slide Wednesday, the euro had advanced more than 9% on the dollar since June 7, climbing to $1.30 this week from a four-year low of just under $1.19.
The euro benefited from some improved sentiment toward Europe: Worries about the region's sovereign-debt woes have eased and investors are anticipating that stress tests on European banks will allay fears of a meltdown in the banking system.
But many say the euro has been more a reflection of concerns about the U.S. economy than optimism about Europe's. 'Most people seem very skeptical,' of the euro's gains, says Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital in Toronto.
Ms. Sutton is in the skeptic camp. She expects another round of euro weakness by early next quarter and for Europe's common currency to finish the year at $1.19.
And the much ballyhooed 'stress' testing of banks, results of which are due Friday, may already be priced into the market.
For evidence, euro bears point to the euro's uninspired performance against the yen, where it has risen less than 2% on the Japanese currency since June 7. 'There has been a big dollar component' to the euro's rally, says Jens Nordvig, currency strategist at Nomura Securities. 'The market changed its assessment of the dollar fairly dramatically.'
Driving that move was a spate of weaker-than-expected U.S. economic news coming at a time when the flight-to-safety dollar buying that had accompanied the European debt crisis began to ebb. Some traders say they also have seen a re-emergence of longer-term investors buying euro-denominated investments, with some speculating that China is among those doing some nibbling.
Based on consensus forecasts among 102 firms surveyed by Consensus Economics on July 12, the euro is predicted to end the third quarter at $1.21 and the year at $1.20. In May, the euro was expected to finish this quarter just shy of $1.30 and close out 2010 at $1.294.
Sentiment among investors also has been one-sided. In late June, when the euro was trading near $1.24, a survey of clients by Barclays Capital found that only 4% expected the euro to rally while 80% expected the euro to be steady to lower.
The currency's swings have caught many off guard. Currency watchers had only just adjusted their forecasts to account for the slump -- a 21% decline to its nadir in early June from its November peak -- when the rally began.
The moves have made it particularly difficult for bulls like Thomas Stolper, Goldman Sachs Group's currency strategist in London. As recently as May, Mr. Stolper had been looking for the euro to rebound to $1.35 by year-end, in large part because of expectations that economic growth in the U.S. would cool off and drag down the dollar.
In June, Mr. Stolper sharply cut his forecast for the euro to $1.15 in the near term and $1.25 over 12 months. The analyst said he misread the political uncertainty spawned by the Greek debt crisis.
Last week, as investors worst fears about contagion from the debt crisis faded, Goldman returned to its more-bullish long-term leanings on the euro against the dollar and raised its euro forecasts back up to $1.35 in six months and $1.38 a year from now.
Mr. Stolper says the U.S. has much bigger structural problems than Europe, with high unemployment, a depressed housing market, low savings rates and a steep federal budget deficit. As a result, 'the U.S. is facing weaker growth for quite some time,' which will hurt the dollar.
That said, Mr. Stolper still thinks the odds favor the euro taking another tumble back down to $1.22 within the next three months.
'We don't want to sound the all clear on the political pressures in Europe,' he says. He points to France, where trade unions have called for a general strike on Sept. 7, as the kind of event that could generate negative headlines for the euro.
Behind the negative sentiment toward the euro is the belief that European economic growth will be damped in coming quarters by the effect of fiscal policy tightening in the wake of the Greek debt crisis, where investors took the country to task for unsustainable borrowing.