国将考虑公布人民币兑一揽子其他货币的有效汇率，以便弱化人民币兑美元的汇率，这进一步显示出自实际取消人民币与美元挂钩的做法以来，北京计划如何管理人民币。
中国央行副行长胡晓炼周四在央行网站上发布的讲话稿中说，中国将考虑逐渐把有效汇率水平作为人民币汇率水平的参照系和调控的参考。有效汇率是对一种货币兑一篮子其他货币的价值的评估，各货币的权重是根据国家之间的贸易额确定的。
假如中国根据有效汇率来调整人民币汇率，可能意味着对人民币兑美元双边汇率的关注减少。不过，胡晓炼在讲话中并没有说明一篮子货币的组成，也没有就一篮子货币将如何运作提供更多的细节。
这是自6月19日中国实际取消人民币与美元挂钩的做法以来，胡晓炼第二次就人民币汇率问题发表讲话。当时中国央行暗示，将转向一种新的汇率机制，重点将更多地放在指导人民币兑一篮子货币的汇率。
人民币与美元挂钩的做法帮助使人民币相对于美元的价值保持稳定，在北京努力推动迅速增长之际，减少了汇率波动。不过，美国国会议员、竞争国家的领导人等人称，人民币与美元挂钩使中国出口商品保持较低价格，给了中国不公平的优势。
经济学家们提醒说，不要对胡晓炼的讲话做过多的解读。他们说，中国的立场依然存在模糊性，即使基于一篮子货币的系统将是中国汇率政策的长期目标这一点变得更清楚了。中国央行不是独立的，在货币政策和汇率上的决策需要获得中国高层政治领导人的批准。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)经济学家宋宇说，中国央行一直持这种观点，不过他们没有权力来做出这种决定。
同 样是在周四，中国国务院总理温家宝说，下半年经济工作以稳定政策为主基调，同时强调要促进经济平稳较快发展。温家宝的话表明，随着刺激性支出继续逐渐减 少，对银行放贷和房地产投机的控制开始在更广泛的经济领域产生影响，中国国内生产总值(GDP)增速从一季度的11.9%下滑至二季度的10.3%，政府 开始比上半年更多地强调保持经济平稳较快发展。
分析人士说，近期内不太可能将人民币与一篮子货币严格挂钩，因为如果这样做，将意味着当美元兑其他货币升值时，人民币兑美元可能贬值，这可能会令一些呼吁人民币升值的美国人士感到不满。
渣 打银行(Standard Chartered)经济学家王志浩(Stephen Green)说，胡晓炼的讲话看起来是就有效汇率重要性的一次“教育活动”的一部分。他说，不过他们没有说明一篮子货币的组成，也没有说要和一篮子货币挂 钩，而只是告诉我们他们将参考一篮子货币。
2005年7月中国最初取消人民币与美元挂钩的做法时曾说，将参考一篮子货币进行调节。不过，中国却继续让人民币兑美元稳步升值了约三年，而没有明显地参考一篮子货币。2008年全球金融危机期间，中国重新将人民币与美元挂钩。
胡晓炼在周四的讲话稿中说，2005年人民币汇率形成机制改革以来，参考一篮子货币进行调节一直是重点强调的内容。但是，仅关注人民币兑美元汇率的观念短期内还是难以改变，其中既有长期形成的习惯问题，也有在会计、统计等方面使用美元较多的因素。
胡晓炼说，中国未来可尝试定期公布名义有效汇率，引导公众改变主要关注人民币兑美元双边汇率的习惯。
国际清算银行(Bank of International Settlements)每月公布对各国有效汇率的评估。确定有效汇率的一个关键因素是，如何确定各种货币的权重。国际清算银行根据制成品的贸易水平来确定权重。
胡晓炼说，在计算权重时，主要根据经常项目收支情况，并结合资本项目收支和本国经济主体跨境收支的币种结构等。
胡晓炼还说，在确定人民币汇率时还将考虑其他因素，包括要避免出现大规模的关闭和裁员。她说，汇率将根据国民经济的条件和国际收支的条件进行动态调整，以应对国际国内市场异动，防止汇率过大波动和金融市场投机。
胡晓炼说，汇率的调整应该考虑到全球经济形势。她说，在汇率调整后，若贸易顺差仍较大甚至快速增长，就表明企业总体上是适应的，调整是可以承受的。如果贸易顺差快速减少，表明企业适应能力还需要提高。
China will consider publishing an effective exchange rate for the yuan against a range of other currencies in an effort to de-emphasize its value against the dollar, in a further indication of how Beijing plans to manage the yuan since effectively decoupling it from the U.S. currency.
People's Bank of China Vice Gov. Hu Xiaolian said in comments published on the central bank's website Thursday that China will consider gradually moving toward using the effective exchange rate as a reference point for the yuan. The effective exchange rate is an estimation of the value of a currency relative to a group of other currencies, weighted based on the amount of trade between the countries.
If China were to adjust the value of the yuan based on its effective exchange rate, it could mean less focus on the bilateral yuan-dollar rate. However, the comments didn't name currencies or offer additional details about how such a basket would work.
The statement marks the second time Ms. Hu has commented on the yuan's exchange rate since China effectively ended the yuan's peg to the dollar on June 19. The PBOC hinted then that it was moving to a new currency regime that would focus more on guiding the yuan against a basket of currencies.
The peg helped keep the yuan's value stable in comparison to the dollar, reducing currency volatility as Beijing looked to foster the country's torrid growth rate. But U.S. lawmakers, leaders from competing countries and others argued that the peg gave China an unfair advantage by keeping prices of its exports low.
Economists cautioned against reading too much into the statement, saying ambiguities remain in China's stance, even if it is becoming clearer that a basket-based system is the long term goal for exchange rate policy. China's central bank isn't independent, and decisions on monetary policy and the exchange rate require the approval of the country's top political leadership.
'The PBOC has always had these kinds of views, but they don't have the power to make these kinds of decisions,' said Goldman Sachs economist Yu Song.
Also Thursday, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said policy stability will be the basis of the government's economic work in the second half and that Beijing aims to maintain steady and fast economic growth in the long run. Mr. Wen's comments suggest the government is placing slightly more emphasis on maintaining fast economic growth than it did in the first half, after China's gross domestic product growth slowed to 10.3% in the second quarter from 11.9% in the previous quarter as stimulus spending continued to wind down gradually and controls on bank lending and property speculation began to be felt in the broader economy.
A strict linking of the yuan to a basket of currencies is unlikely in the near term, analysts say, as it would mean the yuan could fall against the dollar when the U.S. greenback is rising against other currencies, which could enrage parties in the U.S. calling for yuan appreciation.
Standard Chartered economist Stephen Green said the statement appeared to be part of an 'education campaign' on the importance of the effective exchange rate. 'But they haven't said what's in the basket, and they aren't claiming to be linking to a basket, they are just telling us that they are referencing one,' he said.
China said it would reference a basket of currencies when it first unshackled the yuan from the dollar in July 2005. But it went on to allow a steady appreciation against the dollar for around three years, with no apparent reference to a basket. China resumed pegging the yuan to the dollar in 2008, in the midst of the global financial crisis.
In her statement Thursday, Ms. Hu said China's intention has been to reference a basket since its initial exchange rate reform in 2005, 'but the idea of only focusing on the yuan-dollar exchange rate is hard to change in the near term,' due to long-established habits, accounting practices, and other issues.
Ms. Hu said China may attempt to periodically announce estimates of the yuan's nominal effective exchange rate, 'to guide the public to change the habit of mainly focusing on the bilateral exchange rate with the dollar.'
The Bank of International Settlements publishes monthly estimates of the effective exchange rates of various countries. A key factor in determining the rates is deciding what weighting to give individual currencies, which BIS sets according to levels of trade in manufactured goods.
Ms. Hu said China's weighting calculation will be mainly based on current account payments, but also take into account capital account payments and the currency composition of cross-border capital flows, among other factors.
Ms. Hu also said other factors will be considered in determining the yuan's exchange rate, including jobs and the potential for large-scale company closures. The exchange rate will be based on economic conditions and the international balance of payments to avoid fluctuations in international and domestic markets, and speculation in financial markets, she said.
Any adjustment of the exchange rate should take into account the global economic situation, Ms. Hu said. Big trade surpluses posted after the exchange rate is adjusted would show that companies can tolerate the exchange rate change, but if there is a rapid decline, it would mean companies need to increase their capability of adapting to changes in the yuan's exchange rate, she said.