个月以前外汇市场上的大问题是受到蹂躏的欧元还要跌多 深。现在货币观察家正在自问相反的问题。
欧元是欧洲信心危机的最大受害者之一，近几周欧元兑美元反弹9%，在上周五伦敦汇市中触及 1.2977美元，高于6月7日纽约汇市尾盘时的1.1917。欧元兑美元较年初的1.4326美元低近10%。更往回追溯，2009年11月25日高达 1.5144美元。
受欧元区面临的一系列挑战影响，多数分析师和投资者仍相信欧元的反弹将在某一点停止，这些挑战包括经济复苏迟滞、政府 负债庞大、银行麻烦重重，以及欧元管理中的结构性弱点。
法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）的欧元空头预计，明年欧元兑美元将跌至平价。按照他们的逻辑，欧元需要进一步下跌，才能使欧洲出口商品在全球市场更加廉价，并帮助欧元区 的经济复苏。重要的是要注意，尽管债务危机今年上半年威胁将肆虐整个欧洲，但欧元仍高于10年均值1.20美元，换言之，年初时欧元还不是那么疲弱。
鉴 于近期市场多数注意力已转移至美国经济，银行分析师开始对欧元的韧性感到焦虑。
那么欧元和美元真正发生了什么情况呢？
观 察家开始认为欧元区危机最糟糕的阶段可能已经过去。希腊、西班牙和葡萄牙本周毫无争议地筹集资金为他们的债务再融资。有传言说，投资者在抵制一些市场后， 正在考虑再次买入欧元区债券。欧洲央行（European Central Bank）上周几乎没有买进任何处于麻烦中的欧洲债券，这是其提升欧洲债市的紧急计划中的一部分。欧洲领袖下周将陆续公布对欧洲91家银行进行的所谓“压 力测试”的结果。
但在欧洲战火暂消之际，市场对美国经济的担忧又升温了。鉴于一系列经 济数据较为疲弱，美联储（Federal Reserve）官员开始讨论如果需要的话，如何向美国经济提供更多支持，不过他们尚未动手。美联储6月政策会议记录显示，他们下调了2010年经济成长 预估。
UniCredit首席经济学家安农齐阿（Marco Annunziata）近日在报告中说，尽管美国经济复苏明显较欧元区更强劲，但美联储听起来更加温和，对于再次采用量化宽松政策的观点似乎不太认真，而 欧洲央行听起来更加谨慎乐观，短期市场利率开始短暂上升。更重要的是，投资者逐步从单个欧元区政府的政策举措中获得信心：迄今没有发生什么让人震惊的事， 但足以让人们提升对决策者可能已承认有必要推出早该进行的财政和结构性改革的希望。
欧洲利好消息和美国利空消息的连续发威，可能正激励货 币交易员调整他们对美联储和欧洲央行各自何时开始升息，推出他们宽松政策的预期。升息时间表的差异对投资者来说意义重大，这轮升息开始后，那些利率更高的 国家对投资者更有吸引力。
换言之，投资者正在解释今年美国经济复苏可能将较此前预期丧失更多力道的事实。
但没人说无论是 美国还是欧洲的经济复苏将是一帆风顺的，随着复苏成熟，力道自然会放缓。美联储仍在观望阶段，而欧洲，就像安农齐阿指出的那样，还要应对银行压力测试。
其 结果是：货币观察家正处于转型阶段，对于欧元将往何处去更不太确定了──可能会上涨，可能会下跌，也可能会呈拉锯走势。
A month ago the big question in the foreign-exchange market was how low the down-trodden euro could go. Now currency watchers are asking themselves the opposite question.
Europe's shared currency, one of the biggest casualties of the region's crisis of confidence, has bounced 9% higher against the U.S. dollar in recent weeks, hitting $1.2977 in London Friday from $1.1917 at the close of business in New York on June 7. The euro remains nearly 10% below its starting point for the year ($1.4326). A little further back, on Nov. 25, 2009, one euro bought $1.5144.
Most analysts and investors still believe the euro's bounce will be halted at some point by the raft of challenges facing the 16-nation euro zone, including a patchy economic recovery, massive government debts, banking troubles and structural weaknesses in the management of the currency itself.
Indeed, the currency bears at French bank BNP Paribas expect the euro to fall to parity with the dollar next year. By their logic, the euro has to weaken further in order to make European exports cheaper in the global marketplace and help juice the region's recovery. And it's important to note that despite the debt crises that threatened to roll across Europe in the first half of this year, the euro is still above its 10-year average of $1.20. In other words, it's not even that weak to begin with.
But bank analysts are starting to get nervous about the euro's resilience given how much the market's focus has shifted to the U.S. economy lately.
So what's really going on with the euro and dollar?
Observers are starting to believe that the worst of the euro-zone crisis may be over. Greece, Spain and Portugal raised cash to refinance their debts without a hassle this week. There's talk that investors are thinking about buying euro-zone bonds again after boycotting some markets. The European Central Bank barely bought any troubled European debt last week as part of its emergency program to prop up the European bond market. Results will start to arrive next week from European leaders' so-called 'stress tests' of 91 banks.
But as the smoke has temporarily cleared in Europe, fears about the U.S. economy have picked up steam. U.S. Federal Reserve officials are starting to debate how to provide more support to the U.S. economy if needed, given a series of weak economic tea leaves, though they're far from doing anything yet. Minutes from the Fed's latest policy-setting meeting in June revealed that they nudged their forecast for 2010 growth lower.
'While the recovery is clearly more robust in the U.S. than in the euro zone, the Fed sounds more dovish and seems to be toying with the idea of a renewed wave of quantitative easing, whereas the ECB sounds cautiously more optimistic and short term market rates have tentatively begun to edge up,' says Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit, in a note today. 'Moreover, investors are gradually gaining a measure of confidence from the policy actions of individual euro zone governments: nothing earth-shattering so far, but enough to raise hopes that policymakers have perhaps accepted the need to launch long-overdue fiscal and structural reforms.'
This one-two punch of good European news and bad U.S. headlines may now be encouraging currency traders to adjust their expectations for when the Fed and ECB will each start raising interest rates to unwind their easy-money policies. The difference between rate-rising schedules matters a great deal to investors, who are attracted to countries where rates are higher since this boosts returns.
In other words, investors are accounting for the fact that the U.S. economic rebound could lose more momentum this year than previously expected.
But nobody said the recovery -- whether in the U.S. or Europe -- was going to be easy. It's natural for things to slow down as a recovery ages. The U.S. Fed is still in wait-and-see mode. As for Europe, there are still the bank stress tests to deal with, as Mr. Annunziata points out.
The upshot: Currency watchers are in a moment of transition, and a lot less sure of where the euro is headed now -- could be up, down, or sideways.