天是个大日子──这是最最重要的时刻、是接受终极考验的 时刻，也是区分菜鸟跟老手的时刻──而股市是牛是熊也将见出分晓。
2010年7月19日周一，美国铝业(Alcoa)将率先发布二季报。 很多人等这个日子已经等了很久了。
至少对我来说是这样。2010年的夏天似乎既炎热，又沉闷。股市从年初到现在跌了不过3%，墨西哥湾的 原油还在继续泄漏，要是我再写一篇批评美国总统奥巴马(President Obama)或诺贝尔经济学奖得主保罗•克鲁格曼(Paul Krugman)的文章，负责我这个专栏的编辑就要炒我鱿鱼了。
既然如此，那我们来玩一个问答游戏怎么样？
这个游戏唯一 的难点是什么？不能作弊！如果周一道指一下子冲高1,000点，每个人都会奇迹般地突然变成看涨者。因此请大家尽快来做这个测试，赶在各家公司公布收益、 推动市场上行……抑或下跌之前。
问题一：美国是……1.
人类历史上最伟大的国家。2. 搞得一团糟的原始资本主义国家，但还有望振作。3. 搞得一团糟的原始福利国家，前景黯淡。4. 注定要灭亡。
问题二：如今全球范 围价值最被高估的资产是……
1. 黄金。2. 10年期美国国债。3. 标普500指数。4. 傻问题，任何资产都是被高估的。
问 题三：绝大多数上市公司的CEO都会对2010年二季度的本企业盈利情况做出“保守”的预测，这是因为他们……
1. 想给他们的股票期权定一个较低的行权价。2. 希望留下“承诺得少，达成得多”的印象。3. 担心经济出现“二次探底”。4. 担心如果告诉投资者经济有多糟糕，就会被公司炒掉。
问题四：“死亡交叉” (death cross)是华尔街的一个技术指标，指的是股市50天均线一路下行，跌破200天均线（意味着将有一波不小的跌幅，往往代表一个相当强烈的卖出信号）。 最近股市出现“死亡交叉”意味着……
1. 没有任何意义。2. 可能有点意义吧，因为有些投资者相信这个指标。3. 应该有什么含义，否则技术分析岂不是骗人的。4. 肯定有意义，因为这是一个“死亡交叉”，问这个问题的人真傻。
问题五：你最相信 的投资大师是……
1. 《股票长期走势》(Stocks for the Long, Long, Long Run)一书的作者杰里米•西格尔(Jeremy Siegel)。2. 美国先锋集团(Vanguard Group)创始人、指数基金教父约翰•伯格(John Bogle)。3. CNBC财经主持人、太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)临时CEO穆罕默德•埃尔•埃利安(Mohamed El-Erian)。4. 加拿大投资机构Gluskin Sheff首席经济学家、立志成为下一个华尔街“神人”亨利•考夫曼(Henry Kaufman)的戴维•罗森伯格(David Rosenberg)。
问题六：2010年8月的第一个周五，当美国劳工统计局 (BLS)公布私营部门招聘形势再度恶化的时候，你会……
1. 偷偷庆祝一下，知道这么一来，当年布什政府的减税和低利率政策仍将持续下去。2. 在道指应声而落500点的时候，不断喃喃自语“我是个长线投资者”。3. 马上去买任何能买到的高杠杆超卖空型ETF基金。4. 给曾精确预言金融危机的纽约大学经济学教授鲁里埃尔•鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)烧上一柱香，谢谢他让你发了大财。
问 题七：2010年5月6日那天的“闪电崩盘”(Flash Crash)是……
1. 一个买入的好机会。2. 一个教训，告诉我们短线投资有多么危险。3. 股市中关于技术价格支撑位的经典案例。4. 让我们赶紧躲进地下掩体的一个警告。
问 题八：2015年7月12日，道琼斯指数将达到……
1. 20,000点，你正在新买的加州汉普顿海滩豪宅里悠闲地度假。2. 15,000点，你很高兴，因为孩子的529教育储蓄计划终于赚钱了。3. 10,000点，你得意地对每个人说“看，我说过的吧。” 4. 5,000点，你依然在新买的加州汉普顿海滩豪宅里悠闲地度假。
要计算得分，请把与所选答案相对应的数字加起来。
低 于11分：你是个孤独的、彻头彻尾的看涨者。无论是勇敢还是愚蠢，股市需要更多像你这样的人。
12到18分：你偏 牛市一些。不管怎么说，事情永远不会像大家说的那么糟。嗯……应该是吧？
19到25分：你偏熊市一些。跟大多数人的观点一 样可能感觉不错，但主流观点往往是错误的，对吗？
26到32分：你是个彻头彻尾的看空者。那帮蠢货根本不懂这个世界有多糟 糕，但你知道。不过，你有没有按自己的这种想法去拼命做空呢？
Well, today is the big day - the day when push comes to shove, the rubber meets the road, the men are separated from the boys - and the bulls from the bears.
It's the day of Alcoa's earnings, the kick-off to second quarter earnings season. And it's coming not a moment too soon.
At least for me. This summer seems both very hot and very dull. Stocks are down but only off 3% year to date. The Gulf oil spill is still spilling. And if I write one more column about the failings of President Obama or Paul Krugman, my editor is sure to fire me.
So, how about if we have ourselves a little fun with a good old 'are you a bull or bear?' quiz.
The only catch? No cheating! Everyone will miraculously and suddenly be a bull if the Dow runs up 1,000 points. So please take the quiz soon before all the big earnings announcements drive the market one way…or the other.
Question #1: The United States is…
1) the greatest nation in the history of mankind 2) a screwed-up proto-capitalist state that will somehow get its act together 3) a screwed-up proto-welfare state that will never get its act together 4) doomed
Question #2: The most 'overvalued' asset in the world today is…
1) gold bullion 2) the 10-year U.S. Treasury 3) the S&P500 Index 4) silly question - all assets are overvalued
Question #3: This earnings season most CEOs will give 'conservative' guidance because CEOs…
1) want low strike prices on upcoming option grants 2) want to be seen as 'underpromising and overdelivering' 3) are nervous about a possible 'double-dip' recession 4) are afraid of getting fired if they tell investors just how bad the economy is
Question #4: A 'death cross' is a Wall Street technical signal occurring when the market's 50 day average moves below its 200 day moving average. The market's recent 'death cross'…
1) means absolutely nothing 2) may mean something because some investors think it does 3) has to mean something because otherwise technical analysis is a sham 4) must mean everything because it's a 'DEATH cross', stupid
Question #5: The investment guru you trust most is…
1) Jeremy 'Stocks for the Long, Long, Long Run' Siegel 2) Vanguard Group founder and index supremo, John Bogle 3) CNBC host and occasional PIMCO CEO, Mohamed El-Erian 4) Gluskin Sheff's David 'I want to be the next Henry Kaufman' Rosenberg
Question #6: On the first Friday of August, upon learning from the BLS jobs report that new private sector hiring has gone negative, you…
1) quietly celebrate, knowing the Bush tax cuts and low rates are now here to stay 2) repeatedly mumble 'I'm a long-term investor' to yourself as the Dow drops 500 points at the open 3) pile into every super-leveraged ultra-short ETF you can get your hands on 4) light candles at your shrine to Nouriel Roubini for making you rich
Question #7: The Flash Crash of May 6, 2010 was…
1) a great buying opportunity 2) a lesson on the dangers of short-term investing 3) a 'tell' for technical price support levels in the market 4) a warning that it's time to head to your underground bunker
Questions #8: On July 12, 2015, the Dow will be…
1) 20,000 and you will be happy vacationing at your new beach home in the Hamptons 2) 15,000 and you will be happy that your kid's 529 plan is finally 'in the money' 3) 10,000 and you will be happy telling everyone 'I told you so' 4) 5,000 and you will be happy vacationing at your new beach home in the Hamptons
To calculate the results of the quiz - sum up the totals of your selected answers.
If you scored:
11 points or less: You are a lonely uber-bull. Whether brave or just foolish, the stock market needs more people like you.
12-18 points: You are moderately bullish. After all, things are never as bad as everyone says. Ummm…right?
19-25 points: You are moderately bearish. It's nice and comfortable here in the middle. But isn't the consensus usually wrong?
26-32 points: You are an uber-bear. All those suckers just don't get how terrible the world is. You do. But are you putting your money where your mouth is?