国农业银行庞大的首次公开募股（IPO）最早将于周二定 价，这是在全球金融动荡之际，测试全球投资者对中国快速增长的经济的信心。
在发展中市场今年连续推出大型IPO的当口，如果农业银行筹资额触及预期中的230亿美元区间的高端，其筹集的资金将较 历史上任何一家公司都多。
农业银行有近24,000家分行及全球最大的客户群，该行及其所有者中国政府认为，投资者会将其当作中国未来经 济发展的风向标。
但一些投资者对中国经济成长前景的忧虑、全球股市的疲势，再加上对农业银行策略的质疑，已经遏制了这项IPO的部分雄心 壮志。本周IPO筹资额将远低于农业银行数周前设定的200亿至300亿美元目标区间的高端。预计股票定价将低于中国几大银行同业。农业银行股票将同时在 香港和上海证交所上市。
随着股票销售在周一结束，市场对农业银行股票的需求似乎相当旺盛，显示许多投资者仍视中国为全球经济的发动机，突 显了在欧美市场持续动荡之际，发展中国家在全球资本市场中的支配地位。
在伦敦Charlemagne Capital帮助管理30亿美元资产的梅奥（Julian Mayo）说，在动荡的市场中，中国政府能够销售质量明显不是其最佳银行的大量股票，显示市场主导力已从发达市场转移到新兴市场。
今年全 球最大的IPO均来自亚洲和新兴国家。今年十大IPO包括来自中国、俄罗斯、波兰和印度的企业，无一来自美国，只有一家来自西欧的西班牙。
宏 利金融环球投资管理（MFC Global Investment Management）驻香港亚太区股票主管塞拉克（Linda Csellak）说，亚洲对IPO的强劲需求可能将持续，而在美国人们对此没有信心。
多 数经济学家预计今年中国经济增长将放缓，部分由于政府近几个月出台措施遏制地产价格飙涨，并防范出现危险的泡沫。中国基准股指今年累计跌近28%，为全球 表现最差的股市之一。
中国国务院总理温家宝周六说，国际金融危机影响的严重性超过了人们的预期，中国经济政策“面临的两难问题增多”，不 过他重申中国不会停止调整经济结构的步伐，以促进经济长期发展。
对投资者来说，农业银行将其渲染为利用中国快速成长的经济的现代商业金融 机构，在最新开发的内陆地区尤其如是。在其路演中，农业银行极力向投资者表明，其分支机构不向中国贫困的农民发放贷款。
但与中国其它大型 银行不同，中国政府明确要求中国农业银行要改善更贫困的农村居民的收入及前景，缩小城乡贫富差距。城乡贫富差距已成为公众对共产党执政不满的一个原因。
分 析人士说，中国农行在其IPO结束后相当长时期内，可能仍要努力协调这种不同的身份。
香港浸会大学教授郑毓盛说，这是农行IPO后主要紧 张关系所在。无论何时农村地区有问题发生，政府都会将农行作为发放信贷的渠道。
农行的定位不清还反映出中国放贷银行面临的一个普遍问题。 过去20年中，政府尽力实行金融改革，将银行由政策性工具转为商业金融机构，但仍呼吁银行要支持政府政策。像去年，银行新增贷款几近翻倍至1.4万亿美 元，以支持政府的刺激方案。这已导致银行坏帐将卷土重来之忧。
农行的责任尤其明确。2007年，中国领导人正式宣布农行重组的计划以准备 上市，但同时也说，农行必须支持中国的农业发展，这是农行公开上市的一个先决条件。
农行董事长项俊波去年11月接受采访时说，中国各大行 中农行的社会责任最大。
上个月，中国央行发行的《金融时报》(Financial News)刊登了一篇评论称，农行IPO后，应在支持农业方面发挥更大的积极作用。农行应加强农村贷款发放，并投入更多的人力物力。
中国 国务院在2002年决定，中国四大行应转为上市公司。其它三大行分别于2005年及2006年上市，中国最大的银行中国工商银行股份有限公司 (Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.)2006年上市时募资220亿美元创下纪录。因中国政府担心收入差距扩大会引发对其应有作用的争议，农行上市被延后。
如今，农 行约30%的贷款面向中国主要城市以外地区，这些地区被宽泛地称为农村地区，但也包括人口数万的城镇。
从事农行IPO工作的银行家们说， 农行香港上市面向机构发行的部分在开售后的几个小时内已超额申购。另一个银行家说，较少的零售部分也已全部申购。总部在东京的资产管理公司DIAM Co.高级投资经理Motoshi Nagai说，申购需求令人吃惊。
而几家大型机构已同意购入大份额股票成为农行的战略投资者，这些机 构有两家中东主权财富基金、荷兰金融服务商荷兰合作银行(Rabobank)、美国农产品巨头Archer Daniels Midland Co.，还有香港财力最大的一位富豪。
驻香港的Motoshi Nagai说，农行在农村分支网络齐全，而众所周知，中国经济的下一个驱动力将是城镇化。
Agricultural Bank of China's massive initial public offering, to be priced as early as Tuesday, is testing global investors' faith in China's fast-growing economy amid global financial turmoil.
If it hits the high end of its expected $23 billion range, AgBank would raise more money than any other company in history, amid a string of major stock offerings from developing markets this year.
With nearly 24,000 branches and the largest customer base in the world, AgBank and its owner, the Chinese government, are betting investors see it as a proxy for the country's future economic growth.
However, some of their ambitions for the IPO have already been curbed by concerns among some investors about the outlook for China's growth, as well as weakness in share prices globally and questions about AgBank's strategy. This week's IPO will fall well below the high end of the target range of $20 billion to $30 billion that AgBank was pushing just weeks ago. The shares are expected to price at a valuation below several of its large Chinese peers. Shares will be listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai.
Still, as the share sale ended Monday, demand for AgBank's shares appeared relatively strong, showing that many investors continue to view China as an engine of the global economy, and highlighting the dominance of developing countries in global capital markets as Europe and the U.S. continue to wobble.
'The fact that the Chinese government is able to sell a vast amount of shares in what is clearly not its highest-quality bank, during volatile markets, shows how the baton is passing from the developed to emerging markets,' says Julian Mayo, who helps oversee $3 billion at Charlemagne Capital in London.
The world's largest IPOs this year have come from Asian and developing countries. The top 10 offerings of the year include firms from China, Russia, Poland and India, none from the U.S. and only one from Western Europe, in Spain.
Linda Csellak, head of Asia Pacific equities for MFC Global Investment Management in Hong Kong, says the strong demand flow of IPOs in Asia is likely to continue. 'In the U.S. they don't have the confidence that there is out here,' she says.
Most economists expect China's growth to slow this year, due in part to government measures in recent months to rein in zooming property prices and head off a dangerous bubble. China's benchmark stock index has lost nearly 28% this year, making it one of the world's worst performing markets.
On Saturday Premier Wen Jiabao said the country's economic policies 'face increasing dilemmas' as the impact of the global financial crisis is more serious than expected. But he reiterated that China won't hold back its steps to restructure the economy for long-term growth.
To investors, AgBank pitches itself as a modern, commercial lender offering a play on China's fast-growing economy, especially its newly developing inland regions. In the roadshow for its IPO, AgBank has taken pains to tell investors that its branches don't lend money to China's poor farmers.
Yet unlike China's other major banks, AgBank has an explicit mandate from the government to lift incomes and prospects for China's poorer, rural citizens and narrow the wealth gap between countryside and city that has become a source of resentment against Communist Party rule.
Analysts say AgBank is likely to continue to struggle to reconcile those disparate identities long after its IPO is over.
'This is the major tension after the IPO,' says Yuk-shing Cheng, a professor at the Hong Kong Baptist University. 'Whenever there is a problem in rural areas the government will want to use AgBank as a conduit to funnel credit there.'
AgBank's identity confusion also illustrates a broader issue for China's lenders. The government has tried to revamp them over the past two decades from policy instruments into commercial institutions, but they are still called on to support state policy. Last year, for example, they nearly doubled new lending, to $1.4 trillion, to support government stimulus efforts. That has led to fears of a rebound of bad loans.
In AgBank's case, the obligations are particularly explicit. In 2007, when China's leadership formally announced plans to retool the lender to prepare it for an IPO, it also said AgBank would be required to support the agricultural sector as a precondition for going public.
'Of all of China's major banks, AgBank's social obligations are the greatest,' Chairman Xiang Junbo said in a November interview.
Last month, Financial News, a newspaper published by China's central bank, ran a commentary saying AgBank needs to play a more active role supporting farmers after its IPO. AgBank 'needs to strengthen its village loan distribution and inject more people and resources,' it said.
China's cabinet decided in 2002 that the four major state banks would become public companies. The three others listed in 2005 and 2006. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the nation's largest lender, raised a record $22 billion in 2006. AgBank was held back, as concern in Beijing over widening income disparities fueled debate over its proper role.
Today, around 30% of its loans go to areas outside of China's major cities, in areas loosely categorized as 'rural' but which also include towns boasting populations in the tens of thousands.
Bankers on the IPO say the institutional portion of the Hong Kong offering was oversubscribed within the first couple of hours of the shares going on sale, and one banker said the smaller retail portion was fully subscribed as well. The demand is 'striking' says Motoshi Nagai, Senior Portfolio Manager at Tokyo-headquartered asset manager DIAM Co.
Already, several large institutions have agreed to take sizable stakes in AgBank as 'cornerstone' investors, including two Middle Eastern sovereign-wealth funds, Dutch financial-services firm Rabobank, and U.S. agribusiness group Archer Daniels Midland Co. and one of Hong Kong's wealthiest individuals.
'Agricultural Bank has a good branch network in the countryside, and we all know the next driver of the Chinese economy will be urbanization,' said Mr. Nagai, who is based in Hong Kong.