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联合国给中国减排算经济帐

时间:2010-04-17 20:21来源:未知 作者:admin 点击:

  联合国的一份报告说,面对因史无前例的城市化浪潮而不断增长的能源需求,中国有可能须每年斥资860亿美元才能实现其雄心勃勃的温室气体减排目 标。这是首批评估中国应对全球变暖问题需花费多少成本的文章之一。
In the face of rising energy needs from a wave of unprecedented urbanization, China will have to spend up to $86 billion a year to reach ambitious greenhouse-gas reduction targets, a United Nations report says in one of the first estimates of how much China's global warming targets will cost.

  中国领导人已承诺说,会在2020年之前将中国的碳密度降低40%至45%。碳密度是衡量单位产出排碳量的指标。即使是达到这一目标的下限,也 会使中国通过诸如提高发电厂能源使用效率等手段每年节省下300亿美元资金,发电厂能源使用效率的提高意味着它可以减少煤炭、石油或天然气的购买量。
China's leaders have pledged to cut carbon intensity-a measure of how much carbon is emitted relative to how much the economy produces-by 40% to 45% by the year 2020. Reaching the lower end of that range could actually save the country $30 billion a year from efforts such as improvements to power plants, which would increase energy efficiency and mean buying less coal, natural gas or oil.

  联合国的这份《中国人类发展报告》(China Human Development Report)说,即使没有国际社会的技术和资金援助,中国这一将碳密度降低40%至45%的目标也是切实可行的。
It is 'proper and feasible for China to set its abatement target at 40% to 45%, even without technological and financial assistance from the international community,' the China Human Development Report said.

  报告的作者们说,中国领导人必须对更加雄心勃勃的减排目标三思而行,因为在最容易的改进工作完成后,减排成本将会迅速上升。
The report's authors say China's leaders will have to think twice about more-ambitious goals because the costs quickly spiral up after the easiest improvements are made.

  由联合国开发计划署(U.N. Development Program)和中国人民大学周四联合发布的这份报告说,如果中国想使碳密度降低51%,这方面的花费每年有可能达到860亿美元,相当于届时中国预期 国内生产总值(GDP)的1.2%。一些批评人士说,即使花这么多的钱,也不足以遏止中国温室气体绝对排放量的急剧增长,因为碳密度目标没有给中国的碳排 放量设置绝对上限。
Trying to reach a target of 51% could cost $86 billion a year, or 1.2% of projected gross domestic product, according to the report released Thursday by the U.N. Development Program in collaboration with Renmin University of China. And some critics say even that isn't enough to head off dramatic increases in the absolute amount of greenhouse gases China emits, because the intensity targets don't put absolute limits on China's carbon output.

  中国将面临严峻挑战。联合国的这份研究报告称,如果中国想在2050年之前将碳密度在2005年的水平上降低91%,每年将需花费1.6万亿美 元,相当于届时中国预期经济产出的6%。
China faces a tough challenge. According to the U.N. study, an aggressive program to cut carbon intensity from 2005 levels 91% by 2050 would cost $1.6 trillion a year-6% of China's projected economic output.

  谁将出这笔巨款是全球气候变化谈判中的一个关键问题。中国说,美国等发达国家有付这笔钱的历史责任,因为目前大气层中的大部分碳都是它们制造 的。
Who will pay that huge bill is a key question in global climate-change talks. China says developed countries such as the U.S. have a historical responsibility to pay for the clean-up because they produced most of the carbon already in the atmosphere.

  但从2007年以来,中国已经超越美国成为世界最大的温室气体排放国,西方国家争辩说,除非中国和其他经济增长迅速的发展中国家接受给碳排放设 置绝对上限的做法,否则减少碳排放方面的任何努力都将付诸东流。
But since 2007, China has surpassed the U.S. to be the world's top greenhouse-gas polluter, and Western countries counter that any improvements could be wiped out unless China and other fast-developing countries accept absolute caps on their carbon emissions.

  联合国这份报告的作者们警告说,中国必须采取行动,否则过去30年的经济发展成果有可能被水灾和旱灾等气候变化问题扼杀掉。牵头撰写这份报告的 中国人民大学教授邹骥说,我们无论如何都不能再延续原有的发展方式了。
The report's authors warn that China has to take action, or the economic gains of the past 30 years could be erased by the results of climate change, including flooding and drought. 'No matter what, we can't continue development the same way,' said lead writer Zou Ji, a professor at Renmin University.

  报告说,中国大规模的城市化浪潮给减排工作造成了新的压力。报告预计未来20年中国将有3.5亿农村居民进城定居,这需要中国兴建五万幢高楼、 以及170个新的公共交通系统,这比欧洲目前已有的数量还要多一倍。而美国目前的总人口还不到3.5亿。
Adding to the stresses is a huge new wave of urbanization, the report said. Over the next two decades, a projected 350 million rural dwellers, more than the population of the U.S., will leave the Chinese countryside and move to cities, requiring the construction of 50,000 high rises and 170 new mass-transport systems-double what Europe has, the report said.

  这将使中国的能源需求进一步加速增长。报告说,鉴于城市已经占据了中国温室气体排放量和能源使用量的85%,政府必须找到削减温室气体排放量的 有效方式,比如改进供热系统,中国碳排放量的约三分之一来自供热需求。
That will push up China's already quickly rising energy needs. With cities already accounting for 85% of China's greenhouse gases and energy use, the government has to find ways to cut emissions, for example by better heating, which alone accounts for about a third of China's carbon, the report said.

  这份报告发布之际,中国西南部分地区正在缓慢摆脱几十年来最严重的旱灾。报告向中国提出了一系列政策建议,认为这些措施既能帮助中国百姓致富又 不会严重污染中国的环境,比如用更加节能的建筑技术来取代以往采用的技术等。报告还建议在国内推出碳税并制定全国性的碳排放上限及碳交易计划,使企业得以 交易碳排放额度。
The report, which comes just as parts of southwestern China slowly pull out of the worst drought in decades, lays out a series of policy suggestions for China to enrich its people without dangerously polluting, using such measures as more energy-efficient building technology to leapfrog over older technologies. Also among the recommendations is rolling out a domestic carbon tax and setting up a nationwide cap-and-trade plans where companies could trade carbon quotas.

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