在一年前大幅下降的基础上，全球商品贸易已出现持续、快速的反弹，一项该领域的权威指数于去年12月创下其面世19年以来的最快月度增长记录。
Global trade in goods has continued to bounce back rapidly from its huge fall a year ago, with an authoritative index recording the fastest monthly increase in December in its 19-year history.
来自荷兰经济政策研究局(Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)的数据表明，金融危机对世界贸易体系基本未造成永久性伤害。
Data from the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, a Dutch research institute, suggest that little permanent damage has been done to the world trading system by the financial crisis.
该机构受到广泛关注的综合指数显示，去年12月，全球商品贸易量增长了4.8%。
The bureau's widely watched composite index said that the volume of goods trade worldwide rose at 4.8 per cent in December.
波动较小的三月期指标也以创纪录水平攀升——去年第四季度较第三季度环比高出6%。
The less volatile three-monthly measure also rose by a record rate in the fourth quarter of last year, finishing 6 per cent higher than in the third quarter.
日内瓦国际研究所(Graduate Institute in Geneva)国际经济学教授理查德•鲍德温(Richard Baldwin)说，商品贸易的快速复苏表明，去年导致贸易萎缩的主要原因在于需求的下滑。
Richard Baldwin, professor of international economics at the Graduate Institute in Geneva, said that the rapid recovery suggested that it was largely a fall in demand that had caused trade to contract.
他说：“需求下滑的大部分原因在于预期受到冲击——即‘令人恐慌'的因素。任何可以推迟的需求大都被推迟了。”
“A large part of the fall was the shock to expectations – the ‘Oh my God' factor,” he said. “Anything postponable largely got postponed.”
鲍德温教授表示，在银行业危机之后，消费者大幅削减了耐用消费品的支出，企业则冻结了投资。他通过计算得出，这些“可推迟”的商品占全 球贸易的60%到70%。当2009年年中这些购买需求恢复后，买方试图弥补损失掉的时间，于是贸易下滑的局面迅速得到扭转。
In the aftermath of the banking crisis, Prof Baldwin said, consumers cut back sharply on consumer durables and businesses put investments on ice. He calculates that those “postponable” goods make up 60-70 per cent of global trade. When those purchases resumed from mid-2009 and buyers sought to make up lost ground, the fall in trade was rapidly reversed.
经济学家们曾对国际贸易下降如此之快迷惑不解。2008年10月至2009年1月间，全球商品贸易量下滑了大约20%，其相对经济增长 的下滑速度甚至快于大萧条(Great Depression)时期。
Economists have been puzzling over why the fall in international commerce was so rapid. Between October 2008 and January 2009, global goods trade fell by about 20 per cent, a faster decline relative to economic growth than during the Great Depression.