When Kim Yu-na, South Korea’s figure skating sensation, takes to the Vancouver ice for her final programme this week, a nation’s pride will be riding on her 19-year-old shoulders. The near-hysteria back home surrounding her efforts to win an Olympic gold is all the more intense because her closest rival, Mao Asada, is from Japan, the old colonial enemy. In a nation used to seeing itself as an underdog, overshadowed by neighbouring China and Japan and all-but ignored by the rest of the world, sporting victory in an international arena takes on a supercharged significance.
上周，当韩国花样滑冰热门人物金妍儿(Kim Yu-na)登上温哥华冰场表演最后一个节目时，19岁的她肩上背负着一个国家的荣耀。她为夺取奥运会金牌而付出的努力让韩国全国为之几近疯狂，而成绩与 她最为接近的对手浅田真央(Mao Asada)来自昔日的殖民者敌人日本，这让韩国民众的情绪更为高涨。这个国家惯于自视为弱者，在邻居中国与日本的光芒之下显得黯然失色，而且几乎完全为 世界其它国家所忽视，因此国际体育赛场的胜利被赋予一种异常重大的意义。
But South Korea’s status as an underdog is wearing thin. Its economy is practically as big as India’s even with a population less than one-twentieth the size. It exports more goods than the UK, a statistic admittedly more surprising to those who are aware that Britain still makes things. Samsung, not long ago considered a poor-man’s Sony, overhauled Hewlett-Packard last year to become the world’s biggest technology company by sales. This year, it should make more money than the top 15 Japanese electronics groups combined.
但韩国正逐渐告别弱者地位。尽管人口 还不到印度的二十分之一，韩国经济总量却几乎与印度平起平坐。韩国的商品出口额比英国还要高（应当承认，这个统计结果对那些知道英国还有制造业的人来说更 为意外）。三星(Samsung)不久之前还被视为穷人的索尼(Sony)，去年已超越惠普(HP)，成为全球销量最大的科技公司。今年该公司的利润应该 会比日本排名前15的电子产品集团加起来还要多。
South Korea has had a good crisis. While most other countries fell into recession or staved off collapse by putting themselves in hock, it is already back to robust growth. After treading water in 2009, the economy is expected to expand this year by 4.7 per cent, with a budget deficit of just 2 per cent of output, positively parsimonious in these Keynesian times. Urbanised, sophisticated, wired-up and with a per capita income in purchasing-power terms of some $28,000 – only $5,000 behind arch-rival Japan – South Korea is on the verge of long-cherished rich-country status. It even makes Asia’s most popular soap operas.
韩国安然度过了一场危机。当大多数国家都陷入衰退或是靠举债躲过崩溃命运时，韩国已经恢复了强劲增长。经历了2009年的原地踏步之后，今年韩国经济预 期将增长4.7%，且预算赤字只相当于经济产出的2%，在当今这个凯恩斯时代算是相当节俭。按购买力平价计算，韩国人均收入已达2.8万美元左右——仅比 老对手日本少了5000美元。完成了城市化和网络化、经济高度成熟的韩国，正站在期盼已久的富国地位门槛上。连亚洲最受欢迎的电视剧也出自韩国。
Its economy has fared better than anyone dared imagine 18 months ago, when many economists were gloomily predicting a banking crisis. It never happened. Seoul acted swiftly, setting up a $15bn bank recapitalisation fund and helping to stabilise its currency by arranging $90bn in swap guarantees with the US, Japan and China. Diplomats boast they played the latter two off against each other to extract maximum funds. The government also implemented a well-targeted fiscal stimulus, focused on job creation and greening the economy.
韩国经济状况之好是18个月前任何 人都不敢想象的，当时经济学家悲观地预测韩国将出现银行危机。危机根本没有发生。首尔行动迅速，成立了一只150亿美元的银行资本重组基金，并与美国、日 本和中国安排了总额900亿美元的互换担保，从而帮助稳定了韩元汇率。外交官员们夸耀称，他们使日本和中国鹬蚌相争，藉此为韩国争取到尽可能多的资金。政 府还实施了目标明确的财政刺激方案，重点是增加就业和“绿化”经济。
Several companies managed to upgrade their technological prowess even as the recession bit. A consortium led by state-run Korea Electric Power Corp, for example, beat US, French and Japanese rivals to a $20bn nuclear power contract in the United Arab Emirates. Seoul predicts it will bag $400bn in nuclear reactor sales over the next 20 years.
即 便有衰退来袭，多家公司还是成功升级了自己的技术能力。例如，国有的韩国电力公司(Korea Electric Power Corp)牵头的一家财团击败了来自美国、法国与日本的对手，赢得阿联酋一笔价值200亿美元的核能合约。韩国预计未来20年该国能够实现4000亿美元 的核反应堆销售。
Meanwhile, carmaker Hyundai has warmed its corporate hands on Detroit’s bonfire. Now the world’s fastest-growing auto-manufacturer, it has increased US market share from 3.7 per cent to 4.4 per cent in just 12 months. Toyota’s problems will only add to its momentum: it is one of the companies offering a $1,000 discount for a Toyota trade-in.
与此同时，底特律的困境让汽车制造商现代(Hyundai)跃跃欲试。在仅仅12个月内，这家全球增长最快的汽车制造商就将其在美国的市场份额从3.7% 增至4.4%。丰田(Toyota)的问题只会增强现代的发展势头：现代是为丰田旧车提供1000美元折价的公司之一。
Manufacturing exports overall have come back faster than almost anyone expected. Korean companies are big suppliers of equipment and materials needed for China’s stimulus-fuelled building extravaganza. Its cars, DVD recorders and other electronic goodies are in the right price range to win market share from stingier consumers. Exporters have been helped by their high exposure to emerging markets, which make up 70 per cent of demand for Korean goods. Manufacturers have further benefited from a sharp currency realignment that has seen the yen strengthen and, until recently, the won depreciate. “Since the crisis, things have flipped decisively in South Korea’s favour,” says Kwon Goo-hoon, executive director at Goldman Sachs in Seoul.
制造业出口的总体复苏比几乎任何人预计的都 要快。韩国公司是中国受刺激政策推动的基建盛宴所需设备与材料的重要供应商。韩国的汽车、DVD刻录机以及其它电子产品的价位正好能够赢得比较吝啬的消费 者的青睐。出口商们得益于自己从新兴市场赢得的大量业务，这些市场占据了韩国产品总需求的70%。制造商还从货币汇率的急剧调整中受益——日元升值，而韩 元直到不久以前还一直在贬值。“自危机发生以来，事态已决定性地转向有利于韩国的方向，”高盛驻首尔执行董事权谷勋(Kwon Goo-hoon)表示。
The successes of corporate Korea are being matched by a new diplomatic swagger. Washington’s relations with Japan are rockier than normal because of disagreements over military bases. US-Sino ties are being tested by disputes over arms sales to Taiwan and cyber-security. That leaves South Korea as Washington’s new best friend in the region, a factor that has helped bolster its credentials as this year’s president of the Group of 20.
与韩国企业的成功相呼应的是外交上的扬眉吐气。由于在军事基地的问题上存在分歧，美国与日本的关 系不像往常那样稳固。而美中关系则正受到对台军售和网络安全等纠纷的考验。这使得韩国成为美国在东亚地区新的最佳盟友，这一点也帮助巩固了韩国作为今年 20国集团(G20)主席国的资历。
South Korea, of course, faces enormous challenges. Its success is too dependent on a clutch of huge conglomerates such as Samsung. These companies still need to prove they are world-class innovators. The service sector is under-developed. The labour market is too inflexible for an economy seeking rapidly to redeploy resources to higher-value industries. Korea’s ride on China’s back could yet prove a liability if its giant neighbour stumbles. It also has one of the world’s most rapidly ageing societies. Unless it can increase productivity, its shrinking labour force holds out the unappetising prospect of producing Japanese-type growth levels.
当然，韩国也面临巨大挑战。其成功过度依赖于为数不多的几个大型集团，包括三星 在内。这些公司还有待证明自己是世界级的创新者。韩国服务行业发展不够。对于一个寻求迅速将资源重新配置到高价值产业的经济体而言，韩国的劳动力市场缺乏 弹性。一旦中国陷入困境，韩国对这个巨大邻国的依赖仍可能成为一种负担。韩国还是全世界老龄化速度最快的社会之一。除非韩国能够提高生产率，否则日益缩减 的劳动力将带来日本式增长水平的欠佳前景。
Of course, many of these problems – like those of Japan itself – are products of success. An economy that in the 1960s had a per capita income on a par with sub-Saharan Africa is now snapping at the heels of Britain and France. Indeed, South Korea has come too far to hide behind its underdog status. Of course it would be nice if Ms Kim, who scored a world record for her short programme on Wednesday, claimed a gold medal this week. But even if she falls flat on her face, South Korea has little to be ashamed of.
当然，和日本自己的问题一样，这些问题中有许多是成功的产物。一个在上世纪60年代人均 收入还与撒哈拉以南非洲不相上下的经济体，如今已经紧随英国与法国之后。的确，韩国已经大有长进，不能再躲在弱者形象的背后。如果上周三短节目成绩创下世 界纪录的金妍儿夺得了金牌，这当然很好。不过就算她比赛时摔得很惨，韩国也没有什么可感到羞耻的。