一 些衡量指标计算，中国是世界第二大经济体，无疑中国目前是亚洲最大的推动力，而且是全球经济的重要推手，未来数年中国将扮演更加重要的角色。所以把中国看 作坚定不移的力量，是可以理解的，尤其是制造业，特别是依赖调动众多资本和大量工人的重工业来说，更是如此。但这一形象让人产生误解。我所在的公司──俄 罗斯联合铝业（UC Rusal）已发现，中国在这些领域向外资企业呈现了向中国供货的机会，关键在于找到利用这些机会的正确途径。
铝就 是中国工业经济复杂性的一个良好例证。中国快速工业化和城市化推动了各行业对铝的消费热潮。铝是电缆的重要组成部分，电缆使中国越来越多的用户用上了互联 网；去年中国销售了1,360万辆汽车，每辆汽车平均使用130公斤铝；2009年中国新住宅销量为850万套，住宅营建中很多地方都使用铝。目前中国是 全球最大的原铝的生产国和消费国，相当于2009年全球3,770万公吨产量和3,430公吨消费量的大约三分之一。不过中国消费量仍低于发达国家，每人 每年消费量为10.5公斤，而发达国家每人每年消费量最多为13.1公斤。随着经济发展，中国消费量可能将翻倍。
中国在满足铝制品需求方 面存在压力。鉴于中国在其他产业的声誉，这可能让人有点意外。例如，中国有能力生产大量钢材，这使得全球钢材价格下降，电子产品和消费制成品的情况也一 样。但铝却是另外一种情况。首先中国努力推动铝工业，每生产一公吨铝，就平均耗电约17.4百万瓦时（而熔炼一公吨钢，只耗电5.7百万瓦时）。能源密集 是世界上许多炼厂位于电力资源丰富地区的原因（水力发电、天然气、煤炭或核电）。中国依然严重依赖煤炭以满足其电力需求，但煤炭成本不低、也不环保。
炼 铝厂的生产效率是另一关键问题。中国多数铝生产企业每公吨铝的平均生产成本在2,000-2,100美元，而当前铝价为每公吨2,260美元左右。如果铝 价跌破每公吨2,000美元，中国多达80%的铝产能可能将不赚钱，目前中国约25%的铝产量无利可图。而与此同时，由于距廉价的水力发电较近，而且采取 了节约成本的措施，铝业巨头Rusal每公吨铝的生产成本只有1,653美元（根据研究机构Brook Hunt数据，美铝（Alcoa）成本接近每公吨1,800美元，中铝(Chalco)为每公吨2,000美元）。
由于中国政府在更广泛 范围内努力提高经济效率，并解决环境问题，中国最终可能将淘汰所有效率最低的铝产能，把能源转让给其他重要的国家级项目和城市消费者使用。情况一旦是这 样，许多本地消费企业将不得不到海外寻找铝。这对全球铝生产企业是相当大的机会。中国企业已在努力从国内生产企业中获得稳定的供应，全球主要铝生产企业也 争取在这一利润丰厚的市场内分一杯羹。
关键在于如何有效地竞争。Rusal只是近期（去年）才加入游戏，但我们已获得一定成功。我们的优 势包括成本相对较低、具有可再生和环保的能源供应，而且我们距中国边界只有500公里，这节省了大笔运输费用。2009年，中国市场占我们营收的6%，我 们的目标是，长期内将我们在中国的销售增加50%，使中国市场销售占总销售的三分之一。与此同时我们也在利用中国在生产方面的竞争优势。例如，我们在中国 拥有两座生产厂，在电解程序中使用阴极材料把铝从氧化铝中分解出来，以供应我们西伯利亚的炼厂。
中国已显示出在经济增长速度与质量和效率间求得平衡的强大决心，以使国民经济健康增长。铝业就是其为中国贸易伙伴创造令人惊讶的机会的例证。在10年内，我们将看到一个完全不同的中国，问题在于谁首先从这种改变中获益。
China now boasts by some measures the second-largest economy in the world. Undoubtedly, the country today is the ultimate driver in Asia and is a key player in the global economy. And in coming years it will play an even more significant role. So it is understandably tempting to view the country as an unbendable force of nature, especially when it comes to manufacturing, and especially in heavy industries that depend on the ability to mobilize large amounts of capital and large numbers of workers. Yet this image is deceptive. As my own company has found, China presents opportunities for foreigners to supply it in these areas. The key is to find the right ways to take advantage of those opportunities.
Aluminum is a good example of the complexities of China's industrial economy. The country's rapid industrialization and urbanization have sparked a consumption boom in aluminum for various industries. Aluminum is a key component in the cables that deliver the Internet to China's growing number of Web surfers; an average of 130 kilograms of aluminum go into each of the 13.6 million cars that were sold in China last year; aluminum is employed in countless parts of the 8.5 million new residential units that were sold in China in 2009. Today, China is the world's largest producer and consumer of primary aluminum, representing about one-third of global production of 37.7 million metric tons and consumption of 34.3 million metric tons in 2009. Yet China's consumption still is lower than in developed economies, at 10.5 kilograms per capita per year, compared to up to 13.1 kilograms per capita in the developed world. China's consumption is likely to double as the economy grows.
China may struggle to meet this aluminum demand. That might come as a surprise given its reputation in other industries. For instance, the country's ability to produce large quantities of steel is making itself felt in lower prices around the world. The same is true in electronics and consumer manufactured goods. Aluminum is a different game, however. For one thing, China struggles to power its aluminum industry. On average it takes some 17.4 megawatt-hours of electricity to produce one metric ton of aluminum (compared to only around 5.7 MWh of electricity to smelt one metric ton of steel). That energy intensity is why the world's smelters tend to be located in areas that have access to abundant power resources (hydroelectric, natural gas, coal or nuclear). Yet China remains heavily dependent on coal to meet its electricity demand. The coal is neither cost-effective nor environmentally friendly.
Production efficiency of aluminum smelters is another key problem. The average production costs of most Chinese producers are around $2,000-2,100 per metric ton of aluminum, whereas the current aluminum prices stand at around $2,260 per metric ton. If that price falls below $2,000 per metric ton, as much as 80% of China's aluminum production capacity may become unprofitable. At present time about 25% of aluminum production volume in China is unprofitable. Meanwhile, benefiting from access to cheap hydro-power and as a result of cost-saving initiatives, Rusal can produce at a cost of only $1,653 per metric ton (compared to Alcoa's almost $1,800 per metric ton and to Chalco's $2,000 per metric ton, according to research company Brook Hunt).
Given the Chinese government's desire to improve economic efficiency more broadly, and its aim to address environmental concerns, China could eventually put offline all of its least efficient aluminum production, freeing up energy and diverting it to other important state projects and urban consumers. As that happens, many local consumers will have to look abroad for aluminum. This represents great opportunities for global producers. Chinese companies are already struggling to secure a stable supply from domestic producers, and the world's major industry players are competing for their share of this very lucrative market.
The key will be figuring out how to compete effectively. Rusal stepped into the game relatively recently-just last year-but we already are enjoying a measure of success. Our advantages include a relatively low-cost, renewable and environmentally friendly energy supply and our location only 500 kilometers from the Chinese border-proximity that leads to huge transportation savings. In 2009, China accounted for 6% of our revenue. Our aim is to increase our sales to China by 50% to one-third of total sales in the long term. Meanwhile, we are taking advantage of areas where China does have a competitive advantage in manufacturing. For instance, we have two production facilities in China that supply our Siberian smelters with cathodes that are used in the electrolysis process that separates aluminum from alumina.
China has already demonstrated its strong will to balance the growth speed with quality and efficiency for a healthy national economy. The aluminum industry is but one example of how this might open surprising opportunities for China's trading partners. In a matter of a decade we will see a completely different China. The question is who is going to be the first to leverage this change.