国不断提高的工资和人民币的升值带来的影响开始在东部城镇浙江织里紧紧联系在一起的纺织和服装生产商中引起涟漪，并在挑战中国各地类似的成功小企业的未来。
织里有数百家小服装作坊，在这里似乎每个企业都多多少少参与了童装的生产。织里的一家服装作坊主傅伟民（音）说，我们不得不提价来适应成本的上升，每年工资都会上涨。
多 年来中国的工资一直在上升，不过由于计划生育政策造成年轻工人数量不断萎缩，中国经济的反弹遭遇用工荒，如今的用工压力尤其大。大型外国企业已经感受到了 影响，丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor Corp.)和本田汽车(Honda Motor Co.)在中国当地的业务受到了工人罢工的打击，而全球最大的电子产品代工商鸿海精密工业股份有限公司承诺至少加薪30%。
不过，对中国1,000多万个小企业来说，影响或许更明显。小企业的产值占了中国经济的60%，就业占了80%。很多小型轻工制造企业组成高度分工的“集群”，特别是在东部沿海的浙江省。
距离织里不远的湖州以竹制品闻名。温州市生产的打火机占了全球的一大部分，也因此而闻名。它们的共同点是依靠低成本劳动力，而目前低成本劳动力越来越短缺。
国 际食品政策研究所(International Food Policy Research Institute)驻华盛顿经济学家、研究集群对农村发展影响的张小波说，基于集群的模式是劳动密集型的。真正的问题是它是否能在劳动力短缺和劳动力成 本上升的新环境下幸存下来。目前是一个重要的转型期。一些集群将幸存下来，而有些则会崩溃。
自6月中旬中国放宽了人民币与美元挂钩的做法以来，这些依靠出口市场的制造商一直面临着更大的不确定性。今年以来，人民币兑美元已累计升值0.75%。
达威拉链有限公司销售经理Cindy Wu说，如果人民币升值5%或10%，我们的生意就难以维持了，因为这会抹杀中国的成本优势。来自企业的这类担心是中国政府不顾外界压力、预计将限制人民币升值步伐的一大原因。
张 小波说，以集群的方式结合在一起，这有助于中国的创业者克服在国有企业主导的经济中经营企业的各种障碍。启动成本较低，因为每个企业都可以只专门从事一个 很窄的领域。在生产被很多企业分工进行的情况下，每个企业都可以给客户赊账的机会，而它们也可以从供应商处赊账，这就缓解了融资的负担。买家喜欢集群，因 为它们可以在一个地方找到所有需要的东西。
自80年代末以来，织里一直专注于童装生产，当时一家当地工厂发现童装比枕套更赚钱。很快人们就纷纷效仿，随着织里声名鹊起，它吸引了更多的服装公司。如今，织里到处是低矮的房屋，既有小巷里的家庭作坊，也有更大规模的工厂区。
李强（音）是在他的家乡内蒙古开始童装生产的，11年前他迁到了织里。由于商人们都知道织里，他可以比在家乡销售更多的服装。此外，他说，当地政府会提供帮助，这里的人也很诚实。
李 强说，现在阻碍我们发展的要找到足够多的工人。在原材料和劳动力成本不断上升、挤压利润率的情况下，他需要提高销售量来维持利润。不过，李强找不到足够多 的熟练工人，即使这里的工资已经比其他省份高出40%。此外，也难以放弃织里的关系网、迁到劳动力成本更低的省份，因为这需要大笔的投资。
为了解决年轻工人短缺的问题，织里的很多工厂如今都是雇佣30多岁的已婚夫妇。湖州豪得利制衣有限公司总经理林云江说，他手下的240名工人几乎都是已婚夫妇。他已经把员工住房从男女分开的宿舍改造成了独立的夫妻公寓。
其 他厂主则开始试图通过更多地投资资本设备来摆脱对低成本劳动力的依赖。六年前与儿子们一起创立了宁波贝斯特纺织有限公司的叶阿华（音）说，当初我发现一家 公司的竞争优势在于技术。他说，他在高质量棉布生产设备上投资了人民币2,000多万元，而当时大部分当地的服装厂只投资不到50万元。结果是，如今他的 工厂只需要70个工人。
要更多的厂主效仿他的做法，他们将需要优于中国的银行体系所能提供的更好的融资途径。中国的银行体系偏爱大型国有企业。政府已经承诺改善现状，并说目前小企业贷款的增速快于大企业贷款。
The effects of China's rising wages and stronger currency are rippling through the close-knit group of textile and garment makers in the eastern town of Zhili, and challenging the future of small-business success stories like it around the nation.
'We have to raise prices to cope with higher costs,' says Fu Weimin, who runs one of the hundreds of small garment workshops in Zhili, where it seems nearly every business specializes in some part of the production of children's clothing. 'Every year salaries go up.'
Wages in China have been rising for years, but pressure is now particularly strong as the rebound in the nation's economy runs up against the shrinking supply of younger workers caused by the one-child policy. Big foreign companies have felt the effects, with the local operations of Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co. hit by strikes and Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., the world's biggest contract manufacturer of electronics, promising raises of at least 30%.
But the impact could be even more pronounced on China's more than 10 million small businesses, which account for 60% of the economy and 80% of jobs. Many small, light manufacturing businesses crowd together in highly specialized 'clusters,' particularly here in Zhejiang province on the eastern coast.
Huzhou, just down the road from Zhili, is noted for its bamboo products. The city of Wenzhou is famous for manufacturing a large share of the world's supply of cigarette lighters. What they all have in common is a reliance on the low-cost labor that is in increasingly short supply.
'The cluster-based model is labor-intensive. The real question is whether it can survive in the new environment of labor scarcity and higher labor costs,' says Zhang Xiaobo, an economist at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington, who has researched the effect of clusters on rural development. 'Right now is a critical transitional period. Some clusters will survive, some will collapse.'
Since China relaxed its currency's peg to the dollar in mid-June, there is added uncertainty for those manufacturers who depend on export markets. The yuan is up by 0.75% against the dollar so far this year.
'If the currency appreciates 5% or 10% then we wouldn't be able to do this business anymore,' as it would wipe out China's cost advantage, says Cindy Wu, sales manager of Da Wei Zipper Co. Such fears from businesses are a big reason China's government, despite outside pressure, is generally expected to limit the pace of its currency appreciation.
Banding together in clusters has helped Chinese entrepreneurs overcome the hurdles to running a business in a state-dominated economy, says Mr. Zhang, the researcher. Start-up costs are lower, because each business can specialize in just one narrow segment. With production split up among many firms, each one can give credit to its customers and get credit from its suppliers, easing the burden of financing. Buyers like clusters because they can find everything they need in one place.
Zhili -- the name could be translated as 'Weavertown' -- has focused on children's clothes since the late 1980s, when one local factory discovered they were more profitable than pillow covers. Imitators spread quickly, and as the town's reputation grew it attracted more clothing companies. Today Zhili is a sprawl of low-slung buildings, a mix of family businesses in narrow alleys and larger factory complexes.
Li Qiang started out making children's clothes in his native Inner Mongolia, but moved to Zhili 11 years ago. Because traders all know Zhili, he can sell much more than he could back home. Plus, he says, the local government is helpful, and 'people here are honest.'
'What is holding us back now is finding enough workers,' Mr. Li says. With rising material and labor costs eating into margins, he needs to increase his sales volume to keep up profits. But Mr. Li can't find enough skilled labor, even with wages already 40% higher than in other provinces. And it's hard to abandon Zhili's network and relocate to a cheaper province, a move that would require a big investment.
To cope with the shortage of younger workers, many of Zhili's factories now recruit married couples in their 30s. Lin Yunjiang, general manager of Haodeli Garment Co., says almost all of his 240 workers are married couples. He has converted his employee housing from single-sex dormitories to individual apartments for couples.
Other entrepreneurs are trying to break out of the dependence on low-cost labor by investing more in capital equipment. 'I figured out that a company's competitive advantage is in its technology,' says Ye Ahua, who founded Bestex Textile Co. six years ago with his sons. He says he invested more than 20 million yuan in equipment for producing high-quality cotton cloth, when most local garment factories invest less than half a million. As a result, the factory needs only 70 workers.
For more entrepreneurs to follow in his footsteps they will need better access to financing than they have gotten from China's banking system, which favors big state-owned corporations. The government has promised to improve things, and says loans to small businesses are now growing faster than those to big ones.