去几天股市发生的一种奇怪现象让人有些不解。
上市公司的第二季度业绩目前看来普遍良好，但股市反而走低，打不起多少精神。除此以外，从消费者信心指数到投资者对股市的看法，多个景气指标都已经大幅下滑。
美国个人投资者协会(American Association of Individual Investors)的数据显示，看跌情绪已经达到了1987年有此数据以来的最高水平。
那 么，为什么企业利润和股市表现之间存在这么大的脱节呢？这背后有两个方面的原因。一个是老股民都知道的现象：传言证实前买入，证实后抛掉。简单地说，就是 投资者会因为预料一件事情将要发生（比如有关季度利润的消息）而买入，当消息出来后又把股票卖掉。支持这一真理的基本因素在于，市场更多地是提前预料到某 件事情的发生，而不是在发生之后才做出反应。
很自然地，这又过渡到第二个原因：季报其实是有关过去的情况。它们所描述的那三个月，在报表出炉几个星期以前就结束了。
以 苹果公司为例。这家提供iPad、iPhone和iTune的公司在上周二收盘后发布财报，说它在第二季度的利润和收入远高于预期。分析师为之欢呼，但到 周三早盘，随着投资者很快把注意力转移到美联储(Federal Reserve)主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)在国会的证词，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数(Dow Jones Industrial Average)仅仅小幅走高。苹果跟我们讲了过去的事情，而贝南克是在谈论未来。
我们仍对公司利润保持高度关注，因为股价实质上是以企业利润和利率为基础的。聪明的人们利用大量的复杂计算来证明这类观点，但这样常常会偏离基本的东西。我们不想把问题搞得太得杂。一家公司价值几何，取决于它可以挣多少利润，而利率，则决定着一定时间过后这些利润值多少。
截 至目前，标准普尔500指数的成份股公司中已有35%发布了季报。咨询公司Yardeni Research的数据显示，从这些已发布财报的公司看，它们的利润已经超过预测值12.2%，而收入却仅超过预测值1.5%。已发财报的公司中，有 78%的公司利润超预期，69%的公司收入超预期。
美国银行/美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)的研究部门说，目前公布的上市公司第二季度利润强于预期。不过它也预测，从目前到2011年初，随着整个经济的增长速度放缓，公司利润增速也 会放缓。Yardeni公司又说，第二季度比起一季度还是差一些，但连续六个季度多数公司利润高于预期的情况还是很有可能出现；在此之前则是连续六个季度 多数公司的利润低于预期。
看到利润持续强劲而股价不断下跌，一些人开始觉得股市的估值已经不是很高了。研究公司High Frequency Economics的美国经济学家谢弗德森(Ian Shepherdson)相信，从他们自己一个包含了利率和人口结构因素的模型来看，股市估值是比较低的。他觉得，虽然股价不会急剧反弹，而且投资者情绪 也萎靡不振，但股市进一步走低的可能性很小。
然而乐观的盈利消息和有关股市估值的积极想法，似乎都无法冲散投资者紧张而悲观的情绪。他们对于将来的情况要关注得多，也担忧得多。
没人能够预见未来，但我们都在花大量时间去预测，而当前是悲观派的预测占了上风。当然今天的公司利润是强劲的，但其强劲可能就跟过山车一样，好像马上就要飞到天上去了，但这只是跌落到谷底的前奏。
花旗全球市场公司(Citibank Global Markets)的分析师们也支持这一观点。他们认为，随着年初以来美元汇率的强劲走势开始发挥作用，美国公司的盈利势头即将减弱。美元走强会削弱出口竞争力，对公司从国外汇回的利润具有负面影响。
在人们感觉2009年一季度以来公司利润的强劲复苏正在退潮之际，越来越多的声音又在喋喋不休地谈论二次探底风险、居高不下的失业率和巨大的财政赤字。考虑到近期房地产数据显示的下滑，以及6月份零售业销售额的下降，二次探底的担忧不会很快消失。
但悲观也不是无所不在的。正如Yardeni Research指出的，标普500、标普400（中型股指数）和标普600（小型股指数）的预期市盈率，过去一周全都出现上升，目前处在2008年10月份以来的最高点。预期市盈率的上升说明，企业利润的反弹还会持续下去。
但市场并不相信这一点。鉴于这种分歧，我们或许需要等到10月份第三季度业绩公布后，才知道是多方还是空方赌赢了。
The past few days have provided one of those curiosities that make investing a bit confounding.
Second-quarter corporate profits have gotten off to a robust start, but the stock market has moved lower and shown little pep. On top of that, various sentiment indicators, ranging from consumer confidence to investors' view of the stock market, have slid sharply.
According to the American Association of Individual Investors, bearish sentiment is at its highest level since 1987, when such record-keeping began.
So, why such a sharp disconnect between profits and performance? There are two things in play. One is an old Wall Street saw: Buy on the Rumor, Sell on the News. In simple terms, this means that traders will buy in anticipation of an event, such as quarterly-profit news, and then sell when that news comes out. The fundamental underpinning of this truism is that markets anticipate and look ahead more than they react to events when they occur.
That leads nicely into the second issue: Quarterly reports are indeed about the past. They are a reflection of what took place over a three-month period that ended some weeks before the report comes out.
Take the Apple earnings this past week. Reporting after the close on Tuesday, the purveyor of iPads, iPhones and iTunes said it had recorded much stronger earnings and revenue than anticipated during the second quarter. Analysts cheered, but come Wednesday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average barely budged higher as investors quickly shifted focus to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony on Capitol Hill. Apple told us about the past, Mr. Bernanke was talking about the future.
We still care deeply about earnings, because stock prices are based, essentially, on corporate profits and interest rates. Smart people toss in a lot of complicated math to round out these ideas, but that usually distracts from the basics. And we like to keep it simple. A company's worth stems from how much money it can make and interest rates play a role in determining how much those profits are worth over time.
With about 35% of the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index reporting so far, profits have topped forecasts by 12.2% and revenues have topped forecasts by just 1.5%, according to Yardeni Research. More than 78% of the companies reporting so far have had positive earnings surprises and about 69% have had positive revenue surprises.
Bank of America Merrill Lynch research says the quarter is off to a stronger-than-expected start, though it expects earnings growth rates to slow heading into 2011 as the economy's growth rate eases. Yardeni adds that the current quarter is not quite as good as the first quarter, but we are on track for the sixth straight quarter of predominately positive earnings surprises, which comes after six straight quarters of predominately negative earnings surprises.
The persistent strength in earnings, combined with falling share prices, have started to make the stock market look inexpensive to some. Ian Sheperdson, U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, believes stocks are cheap based on a proprietary model that incorporates interest rates and demographics. While not arguing for a sharp rebound, he sees little likelihood of another big step lower, despite the wilting investor sentiment.
It seems that not even good earnings news or positive thoughts about valuations can burn through the tense and pessimistic mood among investors. They are far more interested in and worried about what's up ahead.
Nobody can foretell the future, but we all spend a lot of time trying. And right now, the grim-faced crowd's outlook has the upper hand. Sure, corporate profits are strong today, but they may be strong in the same way that a roller coaster looks set to fly before zooming lower.
Supporting that view, analysts at Citibank Global Markets argue that 'earnings momentum is starting to fade' in the U.S. as the dollar's strength since the start of the year starts to bite. A strong dollar makes exports less competitive and has a negative impact on earnings repatriated from overseas.
The sense that the strong earnings recovery which began in the first quarter of 2009 is ebbing is intersecting with increased chatter about a double-dip recession, persistently high unemployment and a yawning fiscal deficit. Given the recent spill in housing data and the decline in June retail sales, the double-dippers aren't going away anytime soon.
But the dim view of the future isn't universal. As Yardeni Research notes, the forward earnings-per-share estimates for the S&P 500, S&P 400 (mid-capitalization stocks) and S&P 600 (small-cap stocks) all rose in the past week and are now at their highest levels since October 2008. Those rising estimates would indicate that the earnings rebound still has legs.
The market, however, doesn't believe it. Given the dissonance, we may need to wait until third-quarter results emerge in October before we will know if the bears or bulls have it right.