再等一等，去欧洲度假你也许能省下更多的钱。
在欧洲之行变得真正合理之前，欧元还需要跌多少？
Just how far does the euro have to fall before Europe actually becomes reasonable?
任何近年来从美国到欧洲大陆旅行的人都通过自己的亲身经历了解到欧洲之行有多贵。过去几个月来，由于希腊金融危机，欧洲之行的情况有所好转。不 过仍有降价的空间。
Anyone travelling to the old continent from the U.S. in recent years has learned the hard way how expensive it is. The situation has improved in the last couple of months, thanks to the Greek financial crisis. But it still has a way to go.
希腊等欧洲国家财政不稳定的警报令欧元大幅贬值。去年11月，在危机爆发之前，欧元兑美元汇率约为1.49美元。如今，欧元兑美元汇率只有 1.36美元，跌了9%。除了金融危机最严重时期出现的几次短暂间歇之外，这可以说是几年来的最低水平。
Alarm about Greece-and other fiscally unstable countries in Europe-has dragged down the euro sharply. In November, before the crisis struck, you needed about $1.49 to buy one euro. Today you need only about $1.36. That's a 9% cut. Apart from a few brief interludes during the depths of the financial crisis, that's as low as it's been for several years.
这对你这样想要旅游之人意味着什么呢？可以说是大减价。
What does that mean for you, the would-be traveler? It's a sale-of sorts.
总部位于巴黎的经济合作与发展组织(Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development，简称经合组织)跟踪各主要国家的可比价格。它得出的数据远称不上完美。数据反应了居民们支付的价格，而不是游客支付的价格。而 且，数据掩盖了国内巨大的地区性差异：正如俄克拉荷马州塔尔萨的价格比要纽约市低一样，意大利南部一个小村子的价格可能比威尼斯的要低得多。不过，数据提 供了一种大体的比较，可以比较各国在实际购买力条件下的价格水平。
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, based in Paris, tracks comparative prices across the major countries. The data are far from perfect. They reflect what residents pay for things, rather than what tourists pay. And they mask enormous regional variations within countries: Just as Tulsa costs less than New York City, so prices in a village in southern Italy are probably a long way below those in Venice. But they offer a rough comparison of how expensive countries are in real, spending-power terms.
去年11月份当欧元走高之际，经合组织估计，法国、意大利和德国等国家的价格比美国约高出三分之一。不过对美国游客来说，并不是所有的欧洲国家 都这么贵：希腊的价格只比美国高了约17%，而非欧元区国家捷克的价格实际上比美国要低约15%。
As recently as November, when the euro was flying high, the OECD estimated that countries like France, Italy and Germany were about a third more expensive than the U.S. Not all European countries were quite as expensive for the American visitor: Greece only cost about 17% more than the US, while the Czech Republic (which is not part of the eurozone) was actually about 15% cheaper than back home.
快进两个月，形势看起来要好一些。
Fast-forward two months, and the situation looks somewhat better.
以目前的汇率，法国等国家的价格仍将比美国高约23%，不过西班牙和希腊等价格较低的国家现在只比美国贵约6%。捷克的价格比美国低了五分之 一。
At current exchange rates, places like France will still cost you about 23% more than the U.S., but cheaper countries such as Spain and Greece are now only about 6% more expensive. The Czech Republic's a fifth cheaper than the U.S.
好吧，这有个省钱的地方。由于希腊债务危机，在巴黎有名的Taillevent饭店吃一套八道菜的两人晚餐（其中有招牌菜：意大利调味饭配田鸡 腿）如今只要517美元，而从前是570美元。葡萄酒要另外加钱，不过喝一瓶2002年的Chassange Montrachet酒庄产的葡萄酒也比以前省13美元，现在只要122美元，原先要135美元。
OK, it's a savings. Thanks to the Greek budget crisis, the set eight-course dinner at Paris's famous Taillevent restaurant-sample dish: spelt risotto with frog's legs-will now set you back $517 for two people instead of $570. Wine is extra, but you'll also save $13 on a bottle of Chassange Montrachet 2002-$122, down from $135.
据威尼斯Hotel Cipriani的网站显示，这家酒店带阳台的双人湖景房如今每晚仅需1,800美元。两个多月前价格还是近1,980美元。正如他们喜欢在电视导购节目 中所说的：能省180美元！
A double room at Venice's Hotel Cipriani, with a balcony overlooking the lagoon, will now cost you a mere $1,800 a night, according to the hotel's Web site. That's down from nearly $1,980 a couple of months ago. As they like to say on infomercials, that's a $180 savings!
归功于希腊的财政紧缩措施，你能在戛纳多点一些香槟，还能在这儿看到比利•怀尔德（Billy Wilder）的电影。
You can drink extra champagne in Cannes thanks to the austerity measures in Greece. There's a Billy Wilder movie in here somewhere.
经合组织称，只有当欧元跌到1欧元兑约1.10美元时，欧洲的物价才会与美国持平。但欧元会跌到这么低吗？
European prices will only break even with the U.S. if the euro falls to about $1.10, says the OECD. But is it going to get there?
希腊的财政危机是否结束了还说不定。（工会成员前不久刚占领了财政部大楼的一部分，以抗议政府计划实施的财政紧缩措施。这可不会激发人的信 心。）
Greece's financial crisis may or may not be over. (Members of a labor union just occupied part of the finance ministry to protest against the planned austerity measures. No, it doesn't inspire confidence.)
Capital Economics咨询公司驻伦敦首席国际经济学家杰索普(Julian Jessop)认为欧元到年底将跌至1.25美元。他说，我们仍然认为欧元的汇率应当低很多，我们认为欧洲的经济前景比美国差许多。而且希腊问题只是反映 了一个更大的问题：欧元区作为一个货币联盟是否有意义？如果杰索普的预测正确，你可能想等一等再兑换你的美元或预定你的欧洲之旅。
Julian Jessop, chief international economist at the Capital Economics consultancy in London, sees the euro tumbling to $1.25 by year-end. 'We still think the euro should be a lot lower,' he says. 'We think the outlook for the European economy is a lot worse than for the U.S. And Greece is only a symptom of a wider problem: Does the eurozone make sense as a currency union?' If he's right, you may want to wait to change your money or book a trip.
高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)虽然对欧元的基本看法更为乐观，但也于近期把欧元的年终价格目标降低到了1.35美元。
Goldman Sachs, which has a more favorable fundamental view of the euro, nonetheless scaled back its year-end price target recently to $1.35.
与其等着欧元暴跌，你可以找一个比主流价位更超值的旅行目的地。伦敦高级旅行社Real Holidays的老板戴维斯(Philip Davies)说最合算的要属希腊和意大利。
Instead of waiting for the euro to collapse, you might just look for destinations that offer better value than the mainstream. Philip Davies, owner of the upscale boutique travel agency Real Holidays in London, says the best deals are in Greece and Italy.
他说，过去几年，希腊的物价降了很多。如果工会继续占领政府办公大楼，物价可能还会进一步下降。此类事情会影响旅游业。（Hotwire网站说 雅典的酒店价格过去一年下降了17%。它还提供每晚82美元的“五星级酒店”房间。）
Prices in Greece have come down a long way in the past few years, he says. If unions keep occupying government offices, they may yet come down further. That sort of thing has a way of putting off the tourists. (Hotwire says that Athens hotel prices have fallen 17% in the past year, and offers a 'five-star hotel' in the city for $82 a night.)
但戴维斯建议的最超值旅行目的地是意大利──特别是便宜的锡拉库扎和东南部的西西里岛。他说，那里有“最好的意大利美食”。
But Mr. Davies's best value tip is Italy-especially inexpensive Siracusa and southeastern Sicily, where, he argues, you also get 'the best Italian food.' | 