VOA365-每日英语听力!

VOA在线收听|美国之音,VOA慢速英语,常速英语,听力下载

当前位置: VOA NEWS > CRI英语 >

股市、黄金为何反常规双双上涨?

时间:2009-10-26 15:03来源:未知 作者:admin 点击:

  As the world begins recovering from the worst financial crisis in 70 years, an odd couple of winners have emerged: stocks and gold.
在全球开始从70年来最严重的金融危机中复苏之际,出现了一对奇怪的赢家:股市和黄金。

  So far this year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a bet on economic recovery, is up 14%. Gold futures, a bet on calamity, are up 19%. The reason: Low interest rates and heavy government stimulus have poured cheap money into financial markets, helping both the economy and stocks. But the creation of all that money, together with the Federal Reserve's maintenance of near-zero benchmark interest rates and the prospect of heavy government borrowing to fund deficits, threatens to weaken the dollar and fuel inflation and economic volatility later.
今年以来,道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数涨了14%;道指上涨通常表示投资者看好经济复苏前景。黄金期货涨了19%;这往往意味着投资者对经济前景持悲观 看法。原因是:低利率和大规模的政府刺激措施把大量低成本资金注入了金融市场,使经济和股市双双获得了提振。不过,这些资金的产生,加上美国联邦储备委员 会(Federal Reserve)将基准利率维持在近零的水平,以及对政府可能大量发债弥补赤字的担忧,这些都可能在未来使美元走软,引发通货膨胀和经济动荡加剧。

  Already, leaders of China and some oil-producing countries have indicated a desire to diversify away from unique reliance on the dollar as the world's reserve currency. When governments and investors lose faith in currencies and fear economic trouble, they turn to gold.
中国和一些产油国的领导人已经暗示,希望摆脱对美元作为全球储备货币的特别依赖,使储备货币多样化。当各国政府和投资者对货币失去了信心、担心经济问题时,他们往往会转向黄金。

  'In 5,000 years of human history, gold has been the currency of choice, the store of value, when humans have called into question their governments' efforts to solve problems by running printing presses' and injecting money into the economy, says Michael Avery, who helps oversee the $22 billion Asset Strategy funds of asset-management firm Waddell & Reed in Overland Park, Kan.
资产管理公司Waddell & Reed驻堪萨斯州基金经理艾弗里(Michael Avery)说,在5,000年的人类历史中,当人们质疑政府藉大印钞票、向经济注资来解决问题时,黄金都是优质货币和保值手段。艾弗里负责管理该公司 220亿美元的资产战略资金。

  Mr. Avery says his funds currently hold about 15% of their money, $3.3 billion, in gold bullion, with almost all the rest in stocks that stand to benefit from Asian economic growth. He is betting on prosperity for Asia and trouble for Western currencies.
艾弗里说,他管理的基金目前持有约33亿美元的黄金,占所管理资产的15%,剩下的几乎全部是有望从亚洲经济增长中获利的股票。他认为,亚洲会繁荣,而西方货币会遇到麻烦。

  Just a few years ago the idea that paper money was somehow suspect and gold was the best store of value was the province of a frightened few. No longer. In recent months, gold has been pushed to new highs as investors who once considered precious metals archaic have been shifting funds in that direction, to avoid a too-heavy exposure to Western currencies.
仅仅几年前,纸币值得怀疑、黄金才是最佳保值手段的观点还只是少数吓怕了的投资者的看法。如今不再如此了。近几个月中,由于曾经认为贵金属过时了的投资者不断把基金投资方向转到黄金上、以避免对西方货币敞口过大,黄金因此不断被推至新高。

  David Einhorn, who oversees about $6 billion at New York hedge fund Greenlight Capital, last week told a New York investment conference that, before the financial crisis began in earnest last year, he shared the skeptics' view of gold as a metal of little intrinsic value outside dentistry, jewelry and some specialized electronics uses. 'The recent crisis has changed my view,' he said.
纽约对冲基金Greenlight Capital基金经理埃霍恩(David Einhorn)上周在纽约一个投资大会上说,在去年金融危机开始猛烈袭来之前,他也和对黄金持怀疑态度的人一样,认为黄金除了用于牙科、珠宝和一些特种 电子应用之外,本身没有什么价值。他说,最近这次危机让我改变了看法。埃霍恩管理着约60亿美元的基金。

  'My instinct is to want to short the dollar,' Mr. Einhorn said. 'But then I look at the other major currencies. The euro, the yen and the British pound might be worse. So, I conclude that picking one of these currencies is like choosing my favorite dental procedure. And I decide holding gold is better than holding cash.' He has been buying gold since last year, as have a number of other managers of large hedge funds.
埃霍恩说,我的第一反应是想看跌美元。不过之后我看了看其他主要货币。欧元、日圆和英镑可能比美元还要糟。所以我推断,选择这些 货币中的一个就像是选择我最喜欢的牙科过程一样,无论怎样都会痛。我决定持有黄金比持有现金要好。和很多其他大型对冲基金的经理一样,去年以来他也一直在 买进黄金。

  Plenty of skeptics remain. At the same conference where Mr. Einhorn endorsed gold, hedge-fund manager William Ackman of Pershing Square Capital Management, who shares many of Mr. Einhorn's skeptical investment approaches, scoffed at gold. He called it 'a greater-fool thing,' meaning it is something of little intrinsic value that people buy when it is booming, in hopes of selling it to a greater fool.
仍 有很多人对此表示怀疑。在埃霍恩支持美元的那个大会上,Pershing Square Capital Management的对冲基金经理艾克曼(William Ackman)对黄金却嗤之以鼻,虽然他采取很多与埃霍恩一样的怀疑性投资手段。他称黄金是“更傻的人的东西”,也就是说本身没有什么价值,人们在黄金上 涨的时候买进,希望卖给比自己还要傻的人。

  The gradual conversion of people like Mr. Einhorn explains much of gold's advance.
埃霍恩等人的逐步转变说明了黄金上涨的主要原因。

  In 1999, New York gold futures were near $250 a troy ounce. By Friday, they had quadrupled to $1,055.60, just off the New York late-day record of $1,064.20 on Oct. 13, making gold one of the best investments of the past 10 years.
1999年,纽约黄金期货接近每盎司250美元。截至上周五,黄金期货涨至1,055.60美元,涨了约三倍,只比纽约10月13日尾盘创纪录的 1,064.20美元略低。这使黄金成为过去10年最好的投资之一。

  Even some of gold's fans are worried it might be getting ahead of itself. On a nominal basis, New York gold futures have far surpassed their past record of $825.50 hit in January 1980.
甚至是一些黄金爱好者也担心黄金可能涨得过头了。按名义价格,纽约黄金期货已经远远超过了过去的纪录──1980年1月份创下的825.50美元。

  Adjusting for inflation, however, gold would have to double to $2,291.55 to reach its 1980 high, which its supporters believe means it could go much higher before becoming expensive compared with its price during other troubled times.
不过,经通货膨胀调整后,黄金要想达到1980年的高点,还必须涨一倍,至2,291.55美元才行。看涨黄金的人认为,这意味着在黄金涨到与以往低迷时期相比价格更高的程度之前,它可能还会进一步上涨。

  Given that the world economy seems to be improving and that gold has come so far, some gold holders have decided to take some profits.
鉴于全球经济看来在好转、黄金已经涨了很多,一些持有黄金的投资者决定抛售获利。

  People no doubt will keep arguing about whether gold is a legitimate currency. Either way, gold has done well in periods of economic and financial difficulty, such as the 1970s, when the dollar was weak, inflation was high, and confidence in government was low.
毫无疑问,人们将继续争论黄金是否是一种正统的货币。无论怎样,黄金在经济和金融困难时期都表现得不错,比如在70年代的时候,当时美元走软、通货膨胀高企、对政府的信心很低。

------分隔线----------------------------
------分隔线----------------------------
发表评论
请自觉遵守互联网相关的政策法规,严禁发布色情、暴力、反动的言论。
评价:
栏目列表