One of the few calamities that has not befallen the world economy during the past two years is a dollar crash. During the bubble era that preceded it, many (including The Economist) fretted that foreigners, tiring of America’s gaping external deficits, would send the greenback slumping and interest rates soaring. In fact, the opposite occurred. The crisis began within America, and the deeper it became, the more the dollar strengthened as fearful investors sought safety in Treasury bills. Between September 2008 (when Lehman Brothers failed) and March 2009 (when America’s stockmarkets hit bottom), the dollar rose by almost 13% on a trade-weighted basis.

　　美元崩溃是近两年来屈指可数的未殃及世界经济的灾难之一。在之 前的泡沫经济时代，许多人（包括《经济学人》）都担心那些对美国不断扩大的对外赤字已忍无可忍的外国投资者会打压美钞并推高利率。但事实上，一切截然相 反。虽然这场危机始于美国，但随着危机的不断扩大，美元却越发强势，因为诚惶诚恐的投资者都纷纷购买短期国债以寻求庇护。2008年9月（雷曼兄弟倒闭） 之2009年3月（美国股市见底）间，美元在在贸易加权基础上上涨了近13%。

　　That history is worth bearing in mind when assessing the latest bout of fretfulness about the dollar’s future. For the past six months the greenback has been sinking steadily, hitting a 14-month low against a basket of leading currencies and $1.50 to the euro this week. The slide has unnerved policymakers in economies whose currencies are rising (see article), notably Brazil, where a 2% tax on foreign capital inflows has been imposed. Coupled with the extraordinary looseness of American policy, the weak dollar has also revived fears of a currency crash. With the budget deficit in double digits and the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet swollen, dollar bears are once again forecasting that the slide could become a rout and spell the end of America’s status as the world’s reserve currency.

　　 在评估最近因担忧美元走势而造成的影响时，这个事实值得我们牢记在心。在过去6个月中，美钞稳定下调，连续14个月汇率低于多种主要货币，本周对欧元汇率 低至1.5比1。美元下挫使货币不断上涨的经济体的决策者们忧心忡忡，特别是巴西，它已对外资流入施加了2%的税率。考虑到美国极其宽松的政策，疲软的美 元同时也引起了对货币崩溃的担忧。预算斥资已达至双位，美联储的资产负债表不断膨胀，不看好美元走势的悲观人士再次预测下挫趋势最终将发展为全面崩盘，并 终结美国作为世界储备货币的地位。

　　This dollar declinism is overblown. It exaggerates the scale of the slide and misunderstands its cause. Much of the recent weakness simply reverses the earlier safe-haven flight to dollars, a sign of investors’ optimism about riskier assets rather than their fears about America’s currency. On a trade-weighted basis the dollar today is close to where it was before Lehman failed. Yields on Treasuries have not risen and spreads on riskier dollar assets continue to shrink. If investors were growing leerier of dollars, the opposite should have occurred.

　　这种美元下跌论言过其实了。它夸大了下跌幅度，并误解了其原因。近期疲软的美元在很大程度上只是 使投资者不再一窝蜂的将美元作为缓冲，这是因为他们对根据风险的资产持乐观态度，而不是担心美元走势。在贸易加权基础上，眼下的美元汇率已接近于雷曼兄弟 破产前的水平。国债利润仍未提高，更具风险的美元资产收益差距继续缩小。如果投资者对美元不停猜疑，那将物极必反。

　　 Furthermore, a weaker dollar is what you would expect, given the relative cyclical weakness of America’s economy. Thanks to the hangover from its financial crisis, America’s recovery will be slower than that of other economies, especially emerging ones. That suggests America’s monetary policy will stay looser for longer, pushing the dollar down. A weaker dollar should also assist global economic rebalancing by helping to reorient America’s economy towards exports. So in general, it should help rather than hinder the global recovery.

　　此外，考虑到美国经济周期性的低迷不振，疲软的 美元在所难免。金融危机的影响仍有残余，因此美国经济复苏的步伐将慢于其他经济体、特别是新兴经济体。这意味着美国将在更长时期内保持宽松的货币政策，以 压低美元。疲软的美元同样应该促使美国经济转向出口以帮助重振世界经济。因此，从总体上看，它对全球经济复苏有益而无害。

　　Still worried after all these years

　　多年以来仍然忧心忡忡

　 　That does not mean the worriers’ fears are baseless. Three dangers remain. First, the dollar’s decline is distorted. The world’s most buoyant big economy, China, has kept its currency tied firmly to the greenback. This is stymieing the adjustment of China’s economy, fuelling dangerous domestic asset bubbles and placing an unnecessary burden on other, more flexible currencies. Second, America’s fiscal and monetary policies are unsustainable. The public-debt burden is set to double and, on today’s policies, will still be rising in a decade’s time. Third, the financial crisis has accelerated the relative shift of economic heft away from America—which will hasten the eventual erosion of the dollar’s dominance.

　　这并不意味着人们是杞人忧天。仍然有三个危险因素。第一，美元在不断扭曲中下跌。中国 这一世界上最具活力的经济大国将其货币与美钞紧紧联系在一起。这妨碍了中国的经济调整，产生了严重的本国资产泡沫，并为其他更加灵活的货币增加了多余负 担。第二，美国不会长期固守其财政及货币政策。政府公债负担无疑会加重，依照现在的政策，其在未来十年内仍将不断攀升。第三，金融危机进一步削弱了美国的 经济影响力，这将加快美元统治地位的最终瓦解。

　　Even so, this is unlikely to provoke a sudden crisis. Although America’s fiscal mess will last for years, it is not acute (see article). Inflation will not soar suddenly. With neither the euro nor the yuan yet ready to usurp it, the dollar will not quickly lose its reserve-currency status. The lesson of the past year is that it is still a currency to flee to, not from. None of this absolves American policymakers from hard choices. But a dangerous collapse in the greenback is unlikely.

　　即便如此，这仍不可能在一夜之间引发危机。虽然美国财政的混 乱状况将持续多年，但这不是主要问题。通货膨胀不会突然加重。欧元或人民币仍未能取而代之，美元不会迅速失去其储备货币的地位。去年给我们的启示是，美元 依然值得依赖，不必弃之而去。然而，美国的决策者却不能因此而推脱做出艰难决策的责任。无论如何，美钞不会崩溃。